The lockdown certainly did help India flatten the curve, but now as restrictions are eased infections seem to be rising again. On Tuesday, the largest single-day spike was reported with 3,597 infections and the doubling rate may be inching towards nine days. When the first lockdown was imposed on March 25, cases were doubling every four days. At the end of the second lockdown, India had been successfully able to bring this rate to a little over 11 days.
A state-wise comparison shows that the states with the highest cases like Delhi, Maharashtra and Gujarat still seem to be doubling every 10 days; over the last three days, the capital has added 23% more cases.
If this trend continues, with relaxed restrictions on activity — yesterday’s mismanagement of liquor shops across the country is proof — India may end up with over 3 lakh infections by the end of this month and 3.8 crore by the end of July. Resuming economic activity is critical, but so are maintaining social distancing and other safeguards.