In the 2004 American science-fiction disaster film The Day After Tomorrow, a series of extreme weather events suddenly plunges the world into a new Ice Age. Tokyo is hit by a large hail storm, Los Angeles is destroyed by a group of huge tornadoes and it begins to snow in New Delhi.
While an imminent Ice Age seems to be far-fetched and at best a work of fiction, a la The Day After Tomorrow, India got a teaser of the changing climate reality, and the concerns thereof, when a snowless winter marked most of the peak season in northern India this year.
Just consider these alarming facts and figures. In 2024, Jammu & Kashmir saw the driest and warmest January in 43 years. Srinagar saw an unusually warm month (January) with the average maximum temperature soaring to 11.9 degrees Celsius, a record high in recent years. Similarly, Gulmarg, known for its winter sports and scenic beauty, recorded a mean maximum temperature of 5.7 degrees Celsius, the hottest January in many years, turning the region into a brown barren instead of a white blanket.
The neighbouring states were no less better. With a 92% deficiency, Himachal Pradesh recorded its third lowest January rainfall since 1901, as per latest IMD data.
This leads us to the question—is climate change blurring the line between dystopia and reality?
“This year, the news around Kashmir has not been about conflict but the ski resorts of Gulmarg that had been snowless much of this winter,” says Kashmir-based filmmaker Jalal Ud Din Baba, who makes films on climate-related themes. Apart from the resort town of Gulmarg, tourists flock to Pahalgam, Sonamarg and other areas of the region in winters to enjoy sports like skiing and snowboarding, along with activities like pony rides.
The lack of snowfall in January “was a disappointment for tourists coming to Kashmir,” says Vinit Chhabra, general manager of The Khyber Himalayan Resort & Spa, a luxurious property nestled in the heart of Gulmarg. While Chhabra asserts that the lack of snowfall did not impact the resort’s business, as it “saw very few cancellations, and that, too, for other reasons”, some reports suggest that about 70-75% of the bookings to the region in January were either cancelled or deferred.
While The Khyber Himalayan Resort & Spa did not witness a fall in tourist numbers, it had to resort to other activities as snow played a spoilsport. “We kept our guests entertained by enhancing the in-house offerings. Our heated swimming pool, bonfires, etc, kept them engaged within the property,” Chhabra adds.
A similar situation was seen in neighbouring Himachal Pradesh, another winter tourism hotspot. “The delayed snowfall has significantly impacted, particularly in Himachal Pradesh, where snow boosts revenue in January,” says Manoj Sihag, director of Echor Hotel & Resorts, a boutique hotel chain with properties located across the region. “Last year, our properties enjoyed robust 95% occupancy and a high volume of inquiries. However, this year witnessed a drastic decline, with occupancy dropping by 25% and inquiries decreasing by 40%,” he says, highlighting that “adaptation remains crucial for the industry to navigate through unpredictable weather patterns”.
The numbers are crucial considering Kashmir’s economy is broadly dependent on tourism with the sector contributing 7% to the region’s gross domestic product (GDP). This is the same for Himachal Pradesh too, where the sector contributes approximately 14.42% of direct and indirect employment in the state. Notably, a decade ago in 2013, scientists from Kashmir, in a study, had warned that climate change “poses a serious threat to the sustainability of winter tourism in the region”. They had stressed then that the ski resorts of Gulmarg would be “severely affected by the expected higher frequency of snow-deficient winters”.
The new normal?
This year, it was the hottest January ever recorded, as per the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. In fact, January was the “eighth month in a row that is the warmest on record for the respective month of the year,” it said.
Erratic climate patterns know no borders. Just like northern India, north and north-western Pakistan along with Afghanistan, too, experienced deficient snowfall. While it impacted the tourism sector in Pakistan, the concern is more pressing in Afghanistan, as it is already in its third year of drought, and 80% of its population depends on agriculture.
The ski resorts of Europe have had a similar fate this winter as their counterparts in Kashmir. Switzerland, a major ski destination, saw dwindling snow and tourists as the country witnessed mild temperatures. Mountain Wilderness, an NGO that works towards preserving mountainous areas, had said last year that as many as 65 mechanical ski lifts were rusting away due to the lack of snow and high temperatures, as per reports. Similar was the case in Italy, where the high temperature made it difficult to even produce artificial snow with a cannon.
Notably, Europe is home to half of the world’s ski resorts, which generate about $30 billion every year and play a major role in sustaining the local economies. However, these are under a major threat posed by climate change. According to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, even if the global heating is capped at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Paris climate treaty target, a third of Europe’s resorts would still find themselves vulnerable to snow scarcity.
Naturally, the erratic weather patterns have impacted festivities too. While Christmas and snowfall go hand-in-hand in several places in the Northern Hemisphere, just 17.6% of the US was covered in snow on the morning of December 25. A similar sight was witnessed in Canada, a country known for biting cold and thick accumulation of snow cover.
Dwindling snow cover
The effect of climate change is far and beyond, including on the snow cover. A recent study, published in the Nature journal, confirmed that human-caused climate change has impacted snow patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. This includes a clear decline of snowpack in at least 31 river basins. Another study, published last year, said that the global annual snow cover has declined by as much as 5% since 2000.
The reduced snowfall will lead to lower snowpack and glacier melt, affecting water availability in the downstream regions, highlights PK Joshi, professor, School of Environmental Sciences (SES) and former chairperson, Special Centre for Disaster Research (SCDR), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. “Snow-covered surfaces have a high albedo, reflecting a significant amount of sunlight and helping to regulate temperatures. Reduced snow cover can contribute to higher temperatures in the region during the summer months, potentially exacerbating heatwaves and affecting local climate patterns,” he adds.
Far-reaching impact
“There are already forest fires happening due to extremely dry conditions in the mountains. Even the controlled ones are causing issues because there’s barely enough moisture,” wrote Himachal Pradesh-based travel writer and photographer Abhinav Chandel on Instagram on January 8. As per the Forest Survey of India’s data, there were as many as 2,050 incidents of forest fires between October and January, a rise of seven times compared to the winter last year. Notably, the forest fire season in Himachal Pradesh overlaps with summer, spanning from April to June.
A similar plight was witnessed in Kashmir. “Due to the dryness and aggravating warm conditions, the forests were burning across all sides of the valley, flared up by wild and man-made fires,” says Baba.
Notably, Uttarakhand saw the highest number of forest fires this year. With 600 alerts, it was followed by Himachal Pradesh with more than 400 alerts and Jammu & Kashmir with about 250.
Beyond forest fires, “many plant and animal species in the Himalayas are adapted to specific climatic conditions. Such changed snowfall patterns would disrupt these adaptations, affecting the timing of flowering, migration, and reproductive cycles. Also, the changes in temperature and precipitation patterns associated with low snowfall can create conditions that favour the spread of invasive plant and animal species (including the re-emergence of pests and diseases). Invasive species can outcompete native species, leading to changes in ecosystem structure and function,” explains Joshi.
Scientists have warned that warmer temperatures and a lack of snow may create favourable conditions for the propagation of certain pests, which otherwise remain dormant during winter, as per reports. These can pose a threat to the crops. Speaking of the re-emergence of certain pathogens, research shows that ancient viruses, termed zombie viruses, frozen in the Arctic permafrost could be unleashed, posing the threat of a major disease outbreak.
Incidentally, “snow acts as a protective layer for soil microbes during the winter months. Reduced snow cover exposes microbial communities to harsher conditions, potentially affecting their diversity and activity. Changes in microbial communities can have cascading effects on nutrient cycling, soil fertility, and plant health,” Joshi explains.
Although “fortunately, it has snowed for the past few days, though scantily, the magnitude and timing are obviously inappropriate. Less precipitation means less snow accumulation in mountains, which means less glacial formation,” says Baba, who highlights how it would impact Kashmir, which “completely depends on nature and its resources. When the glacial formation slows down and the meltdown fastens, one can only imagine the consequences that this dry and drought-like situation will bring us in the coming times,” he adds.
What’s next?
In a post on X, Jammu & Kashmir’s former chief minister Omar Abdullah, wrote, “I’ve never seen Gulmarg so dry in the winter… if we don’t see snow soon the summer is going to be miserable.”
While the recent snowfall has brought much cheer to India’s mountains, it is to be seen if it would make up for the absolute lack of snow in December and January, which can have far-reaching consequences on the availability of water, in the plains as well. “Generally, it has been observed that the drought years in the Indus and the Ganges basin were also the years of low or deficient snowfall. So there appears to be a correlation,” says Bharat Sharma, scientist emeritus (water resources), International Water Management Institute, New Delhi. Notably, Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh form part of the Indus river basin, which comprises rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, Chenab and Indus, while snowfall in Uttarakhand feeds the Ganges, Yamuna and several other mountain tributaries of the Ganges basin.
“However, that does not mean that a low snowfall year will also be a drought year as a good subsequent monsoon can help to avoid the crisis. The worrying aspect is that Pahalgam and Gulmarg in Kashmir, Lahaul and Spiti in Himachal, and Auli in Uttarakhand are witnessing a trend of decreasing snowfall over the last several decades. The upper glaciers in Sikkim and Himachal Pradesh have been receding continually. This means lower water storages in large dams like the Gobind Sagar (Bhakra dam), which serves as the lifeline for the food bowl of India (Punjab and Haryana),” Sharma warns.
Changes in the water availability during winters may also disrupt ecosystems, potentially leading to shifts in vegetation phenology, impacts on wildlife, and alterations in biodiversity. “The incidences of forest fire will be more and intense in the warmer months,” Joshi adds.