Cancer deaths may witness a massive jump of 75% globally in the next 25 years with a new Lancet study estimating there will be 18.6 million cancer deaths and 30.5 million cancer cases in 2050.
The forecasted rise in deaths “are greater in low-income and middle-income countries” than in wealthy nations. According to report, India saw a jump of 26.4 per cent in cancer rates between 1990-2023, among the highest in the world, while China was found to see a fall in rates by 18.5 per cent.
The estimated rise in cancer deaths come from an older population, not cancer becoming deadlier overall, according to the report. The report noted that over half of the new cancer cases and two-thirds of the cancer deaths will be in the low and middle-income countries, including India. The global decline in cancer occurrences and deaths was could mainly attributed to high and upper middle income countries, as per the study.
India’s cancer cases, deaths still below global average
The cancer deaths and occurrences in India are on rise, they are lower than the global average. According to a report by the Indian Express, the latest data reveals that the cancer incidence rate in India has risen from 84.8 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 107.2 per 100,000 population in 2023, which translates to 15 lakh cancer cases. Similarly, the cancer mortality rate has increased from 71.7 per 100,000 in 1990 to 86.9 per 100,000 in 2023, accounting for approximately 12.1 lakh deaths.
Over 40% of global cancer deaths linked to 44 modifiable risk factors
The team of researchers observed that more than 40 per cent of deaths due to cancer around the world are linked to 44 modifiable risk factors including tobacco use, an unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar. Spreading awareness around them could help address the challenge.
“Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritised in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge in many settings,” said lead author Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the US’ University of Washington, which coordinates the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.
The researchers noted that although overall global death rates declined by 24 per cent between 1990 and 2023, there were notable disparities in the rate of reduction between high- and low-income countries. They pointed out that the incidence of new cancer cases worsened in low-income countries, rising by 24 per cent, and in lower-middle-income countries, increasing by 29 per cent. This highlights the disproportionate rise in cancer burden in regions with fewer resources, the team added.
“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” Dr Force said.