Will PM Modi attend SCO Summit in Pakistan on October 15-16?

With Pakistan set to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of Government (CHG) in mid-October, the question of India’s representation at the summit has garnered significant attention. The spotlight is on whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend or depute a senior minister, as has been the practice in past meetings. This potential diplomatic engagement is particularly notable given the long-standing tension between India and Pakistan, adding a layer of complexity to India’s decision.

 As the host nation, Pakistan extended an invitation to PM Modi for the in-person SCO meeting, scheduled for October 15-16, 2024. At a weekly briefing, the Ministry of External Affairs acknowledged the invitation but has refrained from offering any immediate response. Speculation has arisen regarding whether India will opt for a ministerial representative, as was done in previous instances, when PM Modi sent a senior cabinet member in his place for similar gatherings.

The Significance of the SCO Summit

The SCO holds a unique position as one of the few multilateral platforms where India and Pakistan have managed to cooperate, despite their strained bilateral relations. Founded with a focus on fostering security cooperation across Eurasia, the organization includes key players such as Russia and China, along with several Central Asian nations. For India, participation in such forums is an essential aspect of its broader foreign policy goals, as it seeks to maintain and strengthen strategic ties within the Eurasian region.

Experts have highlighted the importance of India’s participation in the SCO, regardless of its bilateral issues with Pakistan. They argue that isolating the bilateral tensions from India’s plurilateral commitments could yield long-term benefits. For example, despite persistent hostilities, India’s involvement in SCO exercises and Pakistan’s participation in SCO meetings held in India have continued. This demonstrates the value both nations place on the organization’s collaborative framework.

Strained Relations and Diplomatic History

India-Pakistan relations have been on a downward trajectory for years, punctuated by multiple attempts at dialogue, followed by setbacks due to terror attacks and political developments. Notably, the Pathankot airbase and Uri army camp attacks in 2016 severely disrupted the prospect of further bilateral engagement. Since then, India has avoided multilateral engagements in Pakistan under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) framework. This SCO meeting would mark a rare instance where a senior Indian leader could visit Pakistan for a multilateral event, if India decides to send an in-person representative.

In the past, both countries have adhered to the SCO Charter’s stipulations against raising bilateral issues within the organization’s framework. This unique feature of the SCO has allowed India and Pakistan to continue participating without the distraction of their bilateral disputes, unlike other regional organizations such as SAARC, where these tensions have often overshadowed progress.

Will India Send External Affairs Minister Jaishankar?

One of the key considerations for India is whether to send External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to Pakistan for the meeting. His potential visit would represent a significant diplomatic gesture, considering no Indian External Affairs Minister has visited Pakistan since 2015. The meeting would provide India with an opportunity to assert its commitment to the SCO’s objectives without the need for direct bilateral talks.

Some sources have suggested that New Delhi may lean towards virtual participation or dispatching a high-level ministerial representative rather than PM Modi. And they note that this approach would maintain the delicate balance of India’s multilateral commitments while avoiding the optics of a direct diplomatic engagement with Pakistan at the highest level.

The Geopolitical Context

India’s participation in the SCO must also be viewed within the broader geopolitical context. The organization is seen as a counterbalance to Western-led alliances, with China and Russia playing leading roles. As India continues to navigate complex relationships within other multilateral groups such as the BRICS, Quad, and the Indo-Pacific frameworks, its involvement in the SCO is pivotal for maintaining its strategic autonomy in global affairs.

By participating in the SCO, India aligns itself with efforts to counter terrorism, extremism, and instability in the region. The Eurasian group offers New Delhi a platform to engage with regional powers on issues that transcend bilateral conflicts, such as economic cooperation, energy security, and connectivity.