The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is set to retain power for a second straight term as all the exit polls conducted after the last phase of polling gave a clear majority to the saffron party, along with some minor gains for the Samajwadi Party.
While several exit polls predicted around 240 seats for the BJP, Axis MyIndia projected the biggest margin with 288-326 seats for the ruling party, which would be a repeat of 2017, and just 86 seats for the SP-RLD alliance. The one conducted by Today’s Chanakya also predicted close to 300 seats for the BJP.
If these numbers hold true on March 10 when votes are counted for the Assembly polls, it will be for the first time in 37 years that a chief minister in Uttar Pradesh retains power for a consecutive second term in office.
Let’s take a look at the nine exit polls conducted on Monday on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections:
Axis MyIndia
BJP+: 288-326
SP+: 71-101
Congress: 1-3
BSP: 3-9
Others: 2-3
Today’s Chanakya
BJP+: 294
SP+: 105
Congress: 1
BSP: 2
Others: 1
P-Marq
BJP+: 240
SP+: 140
Congress: 4
BSP: 17
Others: 2
Veto
BJP+: 225
SP+: 151
Congress: —
BSP: 14
Others: —
Jan Ki Baat
BJP+: 222-260
SP+: 135-165
Congress: 1-3
BSP: 4-9
Others: 3-4
Polstrat
BJP+: 211-225
SP+: 146-160
Congress: 4-6
BSP: 14-24
Others: —
ETG Research
BJP+: 230-245
SP+: 150-165
Congress: 2-6
BSP: 5-10
Others: 2-6
Matrize
BJP+: 262-277
SP+: 119-134
Congress: 3-8
BSP: 7-15
Others: —
CVoter
BJP+: 228-244
SP+: 132-148
Congress: 1-3
BSP: 13-21
Others: 2-6
The minor gains for the SP-RLD alliance seem to coming at the cost of the seat-share of the Congress and Mayawati-ld Bahujan Samaj Party, which were trying to regain their lost grounds in the state.
Experts believe that the BJP’s pitch of free rations, the ‘bulldozer’ action to drive out mafia, women safety and security, ‘Brand Modi’ and Yogi Adityanath’s Hindutva pitch with the ‘80-20’ slogan would have done the trick for the BJP.
Exit polls are basically a poll or survey of voters exiting the polling booths after casting their votes. They are conducted by numerous organisations which use different methods for the purpose. While most of them opt for random sampling, some also use the method of systematic sampling to gauge the voters’ mood. The agencies ask people from different age groups, gender, caste, religion and region whom they voted for.
Exit polls gives a broad trend and a sense of direction as to where the mood of the nation is heading. It should also be noted that there have been various instances when exit polls predictions turned out to be wrong.
These elections are said to set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will also be the first indicator of whether the ‘Brand Modi’ continues to be the key to the BJP’s victory run in one poll after another since 2014.