The country received 20% ‘deficient’ rainfall in the first fortnight of August, reducing the overall rainfall in the current monsoon season (June-September) from ‘surplus’ category until end of July 31 to ‘normal’ range till Sunday.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall between June 1 and August 17 stood at 600.4 mm, which is 0.6% above the long-period average (LPA) or ‘normal’ range. During June-July, cumulative rainfall was 106% of benchmark or ‘above normal’ range.
Regions – northwest (13.4%), central India (3.6%), and south peninsula (5.6%) — have received adequate rainfall so far while east and north-eastern regions have received deficit rainfall of 13% against the benchmark.
One ninety of the 738 districts largely in Bihar and north-eastern states – Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Assam in the country have received ‘deficient’ rainfall this season.
The remaining 538 districts have received precipitation in ‘normal’ to ‘excess’ range during June 1 and August 17.
IMD sees fresh low-pressure boost
IMD stated on Sunday “fresh low-pressure area over west central adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, off north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts and its likely intensification into a depression during next 24 hours.
“Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, Goa, Maharashtra, Gujarat region, Saurashtra till August 20,” according to IMD’s forecast.
The met department has predicted ‘above normal’ rainfall at 106% of LPA during the second half – August – September of monsoon season. However, rainfall in August according to IMD is likely to be in the ‘normal’ range of 94% to 104%.
Crucial for crops and reservoir levels
Experts said adequate rainfall during August and September are crucial for boosting crop yield for kharif crops as well as ensuring that reservoirs are adequately filled.
Water levels in India’s 161 major reservoirs surged over to 74% of their capacities till August 13, which is 7% above the last year’s level and 23% more than last 10 years average levels
While, farmers have completed sowing in 91% of the normal area of the nearly 1,09.7 million hectares as of August 11 in the current kharif season. Overall, the kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, cotton and coarse cereals have been up 4% on year.
The monsoon officially set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1—making it the earliest onset in 16 years.
Typically, the southwest monsoon, after setting over Kerala in early June, covers the entire country by July and begins its withdrawal from northern India around mid-September.
In May, the IMD reaffirmed its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of the LPA for June–September.
According to the department, there is a 90% probability of rainfall being in the “normal-to-excess” range during the four-month monsoon season.
In 2024, rains were 108% of the benchmark or above normal level, according to the IMD making it the best monsoon in four years.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.