Bihar Politics News: Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo and former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav jumped into action as soon as indications emerged that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar could switch to the National Democratic Alliance again. A master of the number game and the politics of alliances, negating the Lalu factor completely while all eyes are trained on Nitish Kumar would be foolish.

Bihar Political Crisis: Catch LIVE Updates HERE

On Thursday evening, as the power circles were abuzz with the JD(U) summoning all its MLAs to Patna and parallel meetings being held on either side of the fence, Lalu made one final attempt to reconcile with Nitish and try and convince him against any misgivings he may have had over his Singapore-based daughter Rohini Acharya’s veiled attack against him in a now-deleted social media post.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar set to return to NDA, Sushil Kumar Modi to take oath as Deputy CM

As the conversation failed to make headway with news trickling in that Nitish’s talks with the BJP may already be in the final stages, Lalu met the Speaker of the Bihar Assembly, Awadh Bihari Choudhary. While there is no clear word yet on what the conversation revolved around, there is an understanding that it could have revolved around the developing political scenario in the state.

A ‘friendly’ Speaker could prove handy if push comes to shove. Lalu is an astute politician who knows how to remain two steps ahead of his opponents. That the Assembly Speaker is an RJD leader only explains why Lalu may be doing just that.

Also Read| Bihar LIVE: RJD asks Nitish Kumar to resolve ‘confusion’ over ties with Mahagathbandhan

The Bihar Arithmetic

The Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar, minus the JD(U), collectively holds 114 seats in the 243-member Assembly. Other than the JDU (45), the alliance government comprises RJD which has 79 seats, Congress has 19, CPI (M-L) has 12, while CPI and CPI(M) have 2 seats each. The NDA, on the other hand, has the BJP on 78 seats, and the Hindustani Awam Morcha on 4 seats. The JD(U)’s entry into the BJP would take the NDA’s strength to 127, 5 seats above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly.

With 114 seats excluding Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), the Mahagathbandhan needs only 8 seats to reach the majority mark. In India’s scheme of politics, the figure of 8 MLAs is no significant number if a party sets out to form a government. And Lalu is thinking along similar lines. If he manages to break 10-15 MLAs of the JD(U), not only would the RJD be in a comfortable position to form a government, but it would also leave Nitish suddenly irrelevant.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar to flip again? 5 times Bihar CM jumped the ship

The BJP Playbook

But that isn’t the only plan that Lalu is working on, as his meeting with the Assembly Speaker suggests. And he may be looking to draw a leaf out of BJP’s book as he puts RJD’s plan B in place.

Remember when Jyotiraditya Scindia walked out of the Congress to join the BJP in March 2020? By the time he pulled the plug on the Kamal Nath-led government, paving the way for the return of Shivraj Singh Chouhan as the Madhya Pradesh CM, 22 MLAs loyal to him had already resigned from the Assembly by then. Shivraj was called to form a government and prove majority, which proved to be a cakewalk since the effective strength of the Assembly had come down dramatically by then.

Also Read: Lalan Singh quits as JD(U) president, CM Nitish Kumar takes over

It is this strategy adopted by the BJP that Lalu wants to use against Nitish Kumar to check-mate him. Lalu believes that if the strength of the Assembly comes down, the party will not require MLAs to switch sides and invite the application of the anti-defection law, while allowing the Mahagthbandhan to form a government with its current strength.

The incumbent government would continue in power, sans Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), while Lalu’s long-cherished dream of appointing his son Tejashwi Yadav as the Chief Minister may finally be realised.