The south-west monsoon season (June-September) ended on Tuesday, with the country receiving ‘above normal’ rainfall at 108% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with 91% of geographical reporting ‘normal to surplus rainfall, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
It’s a second consecutive year of ‘above normal ‘ monsoon this year, after a below-normal precipitation seen in 2023.
The IMD at the beginning of the season had forecast ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of LPA during June-September this year.
Which regions were the worst hit?
Three regions – northwest (127.3%), central India (115.1%) and South Peninsula (110.4%) —receiving hugely surplus rainfall led to floods and crop damages and loss of yield across states including Punjab, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka. Only east and north-eastern regions have received deficit rainfall of 20.2% against the benchmark.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD said the withdrawal of monsoon has been stalled because of development of a low pressure system which may cause further rainfall in coming days.
“Conditions are not favourable for further withdrawal of monsoon,” Mohapatra said. Its forecast for northeast monsoon (October-December), IMD stated above normal rainfall over 112% of benchmark over south Peninsular India consisting of Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka.
Monsoon had withdrawn from northwest India after commencing its withdrawal from part of Rajasthan on September 14. However, its further withdrawal from the rest of the regions is yet to be announced by the met department.
Usually the monsoon, which causes about 75% of the annual rainfall, withdraws from the entire country by the second week of October.
Month-wise breakdown
This year, month-wise rainfall was in June (109%), July (105%), August (109%) and September (115%) of the LPA, respectively.
IMD said on Tuesday that low-pressure areas over the Gulf of Kutch and neighbourhood, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over coastal areas of Saurashtra and Kutch till October 2 while there is a possibility of increase in rainfall activities over eastern India during October 2 – 4.
A fresh western disturbance likely to affect northwest India from October 4 onwards.
According to IMD, rainfall between June 1 and September 30 stood at 937 mm, which is 108% of the LPA or ‘above normal’ range.
Taking into consideration the impact of flood and excessive rainfall major across regions which has impacted kharif crops, the government recently had projected a modest growth of 2.4% in foodgrain production to 362.5 million tonne (MT) for the 2025-26 crop year (July -June) compared to 353 MT of production in 2024-25.
This is despite record kharif sowing of crops at 111.08 million hectare reported this year.
The monsoon officially set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall at between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of the LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.
Water levels in India’s 161 major reservoirs surged above 89% of their capacities, with the country receiving above normal monsoon rainfall.