Jharkhand election opinion poll 2019: BJP stares at another setback after Maharashtra regime change

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to fall short of a majority in Jharkhand where elections will be held in five-phase, starting November 30. According to CVoter’s opinion poll, the saffron party will get 33 seats in the 81-member Legislative Assembly. The grand alliance of opposition parties — Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Congress and RJD, is predicted to get 30 seats.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) led by former CM Babulal Marani and All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) are likely to pocket six seats each.

The AJSU is a part of the outgoing BJP-led NDA government in the state. However, it is contesting elections alone. The party had demanded at least 18 seats from the BJP, but it was offered 11 to 13 seats.

A political party or an alliance needs the support of 41 MLAs to stake claim to form the government.

While the BJP is seeking to retain the state and has fielded its bigwigs to seek support for Raghubar Das, the opposition parties have come together to dethrone the saffron party.

The BJP-led alliance had secured a comfortable majority in Jharkhand in the previous assembly election held in 2014. The party picked Raghubar Das to head the government. He is the first politician in the state to successfully run the government for a full five-year term.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to get 33.3% public support. The grand alliance is likely to secure 31.2% of the total vote share. The JVM has emerged as a major spoiler with a total vote share of 7.7%. The AJSU is expected to get 4.6% votes.

In the Lok Sabha elections held in April-May this year, the AJSU was an ally of the BJP and the JVM was a constituent of the Congress-led UPA.

Interestingly, even after a negative campaign by opposition parties against the outgoing CM Raghubar Das, he has emerged as the favorite choice of the people to lead the state for another term. As many as 28% of respondents said that they want to see Das leading the state again. The popularity of Das has, however, come down from 29.7% in September.

JMM leader and opposition’s CM face Hemant Soren is the second choice for CM’s job. Close to 23% of people said that they want Hemant as their CM. JVM leader Babulal Marandi has emerged as the giant killer with 21.9% people opting for him.

The polling in the state will be held in five-phase between November 30 and December 20. The results will be announced on December 23.