Assam Election Exit Poll Results 2021: Big setback for Congress, exit polls predict win for BJP

Assam Assembly Election 2021 Exit Poll: Exit poll numbers have starting coming out and the first number gives thumbs up for the BJP-led NDA. Here, the BJP is predicted to get 75-85 seats while Congress 45-50. In Assam, the ruling BJP is up against a grand alliance of eight parties including Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF. The BJP is confident of returning to power but the grand alliance too is equally confident of defeating the present dispensation.

The alliance is banking on its combined power of vote share that works out as larger than the BJP if one takes the last election as the benchmark. The grand alliance has eight parties, namely the Congress, AIUDF, Bodoland People’s Front, CPI, CPI-M, Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation, Anchalik Gana Morcha, and RJD. The BJP has two alliance partners – Asom Gana Parishad and United People’s Party Liberal.

In 2016, the BJP had got 41.9 per cent vote share and 86 of 126 seats. But in that election, the Congress had gone sole and other parties too had contested alone, leading to division of votes. This time, however, all other parties came together in an attempt to prevent the division of votes against the BJP. If this calculation works as planned, the saffron party might be in trouble as its vote share might not cross 50 per cent. For BJP to win, there has to be a counter consolidation in favour of the ruling party and that may happen to some extent due to Congress’ alliance with Ajmal.