After a fortnight-long pause following its early onset, the monsoon is likely to advance into parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Odisha over the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
According to the IMD, the monsoon is expected to enter an ‘active’ phase between June 13 and 17, bringing heavy rainfall over South Peninsular India, Konkan, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa. Further progression is anticipated into most parts of northwest India between June 19 and 25, the department added.
Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, UK, explained that a developing tropical cyclone over the South China Sea is expected to strengthen monsoon winds over India by June 14.“This will increase moisture over India and help erode the dry air, which has been blocking the monsoon progression since the last two weeks,” Deoras told FE.“As a result, the monsoon’s progression will restart closer to mid-June, and it will rapidly advance into eastern and central India in the third week of June,” he said.
Meanwhile, the IMD has also predicted ‘heat wave to severe heat wave’ conditions over Northwest India, including the western Himalayan region, for the next two days, with some relief expected thereafter.
Rainfall between June 1 and 13 stood at 33.8 mm, which is 33.1% below the long-period average (LPA) for the period, as monsoon progress remained stalled since the beginning of the month. The monsoon officially set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1—making it the earliest onset in 16 years.
Typically, the southwest monsoon, after setting over Kerala in early June, covers the entire country by July and begins its withdrawal from northern India around mid-September.
Last month, the IMD reaffirmed its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of the LPA for June–September, while noting that June could see “excess” rainfall. According to the department, there is a 90% probability of rainfall being in the “normal-to-excess” range during the four-month monsoon season.