Dr Smruti S Pattanaik,

Much anticipated no-confidence motion was tabled in the Parliament again on 9th April after the Supreme Court intervened to restore the National Assembly and ordered a voting on no confidence motion that finally saw the exit of Imran Khan after much din and drama. Since the tabling of the motion, Khan tried his best to avoid the motion. Yet, on the day of voting uncertainty prevailed until midnight. Speaker Asad Qaiser adjourned the house four times without putting the motion to vote. As the voting was delayed the air was filled with rumours. Khan did not want to demit office without a fight, which pleased his captive supporters who were convinced of an international conspiracy to remove their beloved leader. Many described Khan’s attempt to stay put as ‘civilian coup’ after the no confidence motion was dismissed by Deputy Speaker, Qasim Suri, terming it as a conspiracy and invoked article 5 to justify his action. The Supreme Court took suo moto notice of the political development and started hearing the case for three days before delivering judgement on the 7th of April restoring the Parliament and ordering a vote on the no confidence motion. It appeared that the five-member bench was extra cautious and took care to limit its purview to the constitutionality of the action of the speaker rather than getting dragged into larger political debate. Moreover, the court also looked into the applicability of 63A, the anti-defection law as the Parliamentarians vote on no-confidence motion.

Prior to midnight and before a vote on the no-confidence motion took place, the speaker of the National Assembly resigned saying that he could not support a no-confidence motion which was part of a conspiracy by a foreign country that wanted to remove Imran from power. Interestingly, there was rumour that Imran Khan was planning to de-notify Chief of Army Staff’s Bajwa’s appointment and a petition to this effect under Article 199 was filed in the High court. Out of 342 member Assembly, 274 legislators voted in favour of the motion. Imran Khan is the first Prime Minister to have been voted out of power through a no-confidence motion. His party is the first party that could not complete five years in office after the 2008 democratic transition. Prior to that leaders of both PPP and PML-N as political parties completed their term even though power shifted from one leader to the other due to disqualification of Prime Minister Yousuf Raja Gilani on charges of contempt of court which forced PPP to name Raja Pervaiz Ashraf as the next Prime Minister. Similarly, Nawaz Sharif was dismissed before he could complete his term under Article 62(1)(f), for not being Sadeeq and Ameen (honest and righteous) by the Supreme Court and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi took over to complete the remaining term of the PML-N. In all these instances there was hand of the powerful Army which was dissatisfied with these dispensations for their independent approach to foreign policy and also their assertion of authority against the military, i.e. memogate and Osama during PPP regime and Nawaz Sharif’s approach to India.

The hybrid system that was put in place after 2008 democratic transition was challenged by the political parties even though these Prime Ministers towed the line of the military. In 2009, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani who tried to place the ISI under the ministry of Home Affairs had to rescind his decision. The Army was equally uncomfortable with Nawaz Sharif who was keen on putting Musharraf on trial, their difference over Army operation in tribal areas and implementation of the National Action Plan. In fact an article in the Economist magazine termed the then Army Chief as “King Raheel” as it appeared that he was competing with the civilian leadership to be the face of the country as the ISPR advertised army’s role in flood relief by putting huge bill boards across Pakistan featuring Raheel Sharif as “saviour” or “superman” who can deliver on anything. Moreover, both during the PPP’s rule as well as PML-N rule, the Army used Difa-e-Pakistan – a grouping of religious political parties and banned militant groups who gathered in Islamabad in 2012 to protest against PPP’s government’s policy towards NATO especially after Salala incident, Pakistan Awami Tehrik and Pakistan Tehrik Insaaf with Army’s blessings organized large dharnas in Islamabad in 2014 to pressurize the government of Nawaz Sharif whom the opposition PTI accused of rigging election of 2013. In Imran Khan, Pakistan Army found an alibi and Khan demonstrated his ability as he managed to gather a huge crowd in the Lahore rally in 2011 which many termed as ‘Tsunami’, his Azadi march of 2014 added to his success along with his slogan of Tabdeeli and corruption free government.

Army’s blessings in the 2018 election was visible as many ‘electable’ legislators from PPP and PML-N made a bee-line to join the PTI. PTI which failed to win a single seat in 1996 and 2002 elections emerged as the third largest party in 2013 and won the election in 2018. While Khan became the prime minister, he was referred to as ‘selected’ PM given the Army’s support. The hybrid regime seemed to be doing well till the relationship ran into rough weather over several foreign policy issues. Army was not happy on Imran’s stance on Saudi Coalition, his sharp criticism of Saudi Arabia for not convening foreign minister’s meet on Kashmir, his enthusiasm to attend a Summit of Muslim countries in Kualalumpur to discuss problems confronting Muslims which he cancelled due to pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, his confrontationist approach towards the United States and most importantly trying to cultivate the former ISI chief, Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed and delayed the signing of his transfer as Corp Commander of Peshawar. He was also reluctant to give General Bajwa an extension in 2019. Moreover, given his inclination to take high moral ground in his confrontation with Western countries and also in domestic politics, the Army was keen to get rid of him.

On March 28th the Army gave a statement announcing its neutrality in opposition move to oust him drawing sharp criticism from Khan who said only animals are neutral. Though the opposition political parties had been discussing a no-confidence motion since last year, they finally moved the no-confidence motion on 08 March. It was apparent that PTI’s coalition partners were unwilling to support him. There were dissidents within the party who were unhappy with Khan’s style of governance. This forced the PTI to file a petition on the interpretation of article 63A on 21 March. In a rally, on 27th March, Khan claimed that he has received a letter from Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US that there is a US conspiracy to remove him. As the opposition moved the no-confidence motion on 28th of May and the house was adjourned till 3rd of April; Imran had already choreographed the 3rd April political development as the no-confidence motion was termed unconstitutional and foreign conspiracy and citing article 5 it was dismissed and the National assembly was dissolved. The rest is history.

As Pakistan elects its next Prime Minister, political parties will be gearing themselves for the next election. Keeping the coalition together which constitute erstwhile political rivals would be the most challenging task. The PTI which would now sit in the opposition is unlikely to give breathing space to the government on the matter of economy and governance. As Pakistan’s general election is in 2023, all eyes will be fixated upon the powerful Army. Naya Pakistan is a history and it is to be seen whether Pakistan moves towards ‘purana Pakistan’ characterized by political rivalry that would make it easy for the Army to determine the course of politics or there would be course correction.

(The author is Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).