By Commodore Anil Jai Singh, IN (Retd)
As Russia continues its unchecked invasion of Ukraine with its frustration at Ukrainian resistance showing in the increasing intensity and viciousness of its offensive, the geopolitical ripples of the war are being felt globally, including 5000 miles away in the Indo-Pacific.
The USA has been very critical of Russia with President Joe Biden making very strong statements while also imposing punitive sanctions to cripple the Russian economy. Europe is concerned because a war is raging in its neighbourhood and could well spill over into EU territory. Within the EU itself, the dependence on Russian gas has diluted the economic impact of sanctions. However, it has also reinforced NATO solidarity contrary to Putin’s expectation of creating a rift in NATO. Infact, this war has given NATO renewed reason for its continuance and it has also been a rude wake-up call to Europe that it needs to invest more in its own security though. However, within the EU there have been contradicting views on the legitimacy of this conflict.
NATO has been offering support to Ukraine with the transfer of weaponry but has steered clear of any physical participation for fear of an uncontrolled escalation. President Putin, in keeping with the unstable and vindictive nature of the man – a legacy of his indoctrination and his KGB upbringing – has been threatening a nuclear response if NATO was to intervene which , instead of bravado, is reflecting his insecurity on something he has started but does not know how to finish.
Many experts had opined that this conflict will divert and dilute the west’s (read USA) engagement in the Indo-Pacific which China will take advantage of to put pressure on Taiwan. Neither of the two has happened so far; the USA continues to remain engaged in the Indo-Pacific and at the height of the Russia-Ukraine tension, President Biden found the time to hold a Quad Summit. The Indo-PACOM and other regional navies continue to maintain their operational momentum. China too has not taken any overtly offensive action either against Taiwan or otherwise so far. It is keenly watching the turn of events and is perhaps ‘biding its time’. It has not come out in open support of Russia despite the Xi-Putin bonhomie at the last Winter Olympics in China last year. China too is under pressure; its super-ambitious multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative is unravelling as countries are realising the debt trap they have created for themselves which is now coming home to bite in the economic aftermath of the pandemic. In India’s neighbourhood itself, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Thailand are in the midst of an economic crisis. Internally too China is battling Covid and an economic downturn; the prolonged lockdown of Shanghai alone will extract considerable economic costs.
India, which has a deep strategic relationship with Russia, a legacy from the days of the Soviet Union that has stood the test of time, minor blips notwithstanding, has been much calibrated in its response to the conflict. It has abstained on all the 10 occasions that it has been called upon to vote in the United Nations and its carefully worded statements have given away very little of its actual opinion of this conflict. Some of its statements and its abstention are viewed as veiled criticism of the conflict but that may be more of a perception than a fact.
India has taken a very nuanced position in the current global geopolitical power play with its national interest taking precedence. This confident stand has won India global respect which has been vindicated with a string of high-profile bilateral and multilateral interactions at the Prime Ministerial and Foreign Minister level across regions. Amongst these were visits by Prime Minister Kishida of Japan reaffirming the commitment of both countries to the Indo-Pacific. Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the UK was here last week to enhance the Indo-UK bilateral relationship with an impending FTA and greater defence cooperation.
The common thread in this diplomatic blitzkrieg has been the effort to avoid raking up any controversy with relation to the ongoing conflict and has been more about strengthening the existing relationships or about issues related to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, though veiled references to India’s position have been made now and then. The only strident note so far was struck by the visiting US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Duleep Singh who warned India of ‘consequences’ for its stand on the conflict. This contrasted with President Biden’s approach of understanding India’s compulsions vis-à-vis Russia. However, coming from a senior official in the US Administration on an official visit to India, this ‘warning’ cannot be ignored. Infact, if this conflict either continues or escalates further, either in scale or wanton destruction of life, this patience with India may also get stretched to a point where India may be forced to take a position.
All these visits notwithstanding and the sophisticated diplomatese that has ensued, the world is conscious of the fact that India is not in a position to take an anti-Russia stand, irrespective of where its sympathies actually lie. It is dependent on Russian support for a large part of its military inventory sourced from that country; in the prevailing security situation in the region with two nuclear armed adversarial neighbours continuously sniping at India’s heels, it cannot afford to be militarily vulnerable. As it is, this war will definitely impact the defence industry in both Russia and the Ukraine, which in turn will have implications on the quality and quantity of support available to India from both.
Over the last few years India has tried to diversify its defence procurements and encourage indigenisation. It has reduced its dependence on Russia and engaged more with the USA, France and Israel through inter-governmental mechanisms besides other countries on commercial terms. There is a renewed thrust on indigenisation and self-reliance with ‘Aatmnirbharta’ being the latest buzzword in the government. Ambitious targets for indigenisation and defence exports have been set with 68% of the capital budget earmarked for indigenous production.
Earlier this year the Prime Minister cracked the whip which led to a review of all global procurements that are presently under negotiation. Self-reliance and indigenisation in defence does not happen by snapping one’s fingers – it is a process that needs to be supported by an enabling policy framework, encouraging investment in infrastructure and technology, supporting industry, energising the MSME framework and accepting the existing technology gaps which require foreign collaboration. In the absence of these or on the basis of promulgating a list of 300-odd items in the last one year which is referred to as the ‘positive list’ for indigenisation, a less-than-accurate picture emerges and the ongoing review is only succeeding in delaying the induction of equipment and paying a higher cost at a later date. Foreign OEMs have already expressed reservations about holding the negotiated cost, as indeed will Indian companies if there are further delays because of the rising cost of material e.g. steel, components etc. as a result of the conflict.
The recent US offer to supply defence equipment to reduce India’s dependence on Russia clearly highlights India’s importance as a lucrative defence market dependent on imports; hence this offer in no way reduces its vulnerability to external pressure. Indigenisation and self-reliance is indeed the key to mitigate this but it has to be a long-term approach with non-delivery, delay in projected timelines or sub-optimal capability and quality by the R&D establishment, industry and bureaucracy being held to account.
It is estimated that about 70% of India’s military inventory is of Russian origin. While a fairly large part of it is in legacy systems which may be phased out in the next few years (viz.,Mig-21 jets, T-72 tanks, Kashin class destroyers etc ), support for the contemporary equipment will be required for many more years ( Sukhoi jets, T-90 tanks, Type 1135.6 frigates etc). The induction of strategic systems like the S-400 Air Defence System (India’s largest ever defence deal), of which one has been received and four more are to follow or in the nuclear domain will ensure dependence on Russian support for at least the next three decades or so. The success of Brahmos, arguably amongst the most modern missiles in the world and the showpiece of India’s military technological capability, is an Indo-Russian Joint Venture. The recent export order of the Brahmos missile to the Philippines worth USD 375 Mn is a significant milestone in the quest for increasing our defence exports. At the recent G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, India’s Finance Minister Mrs Nirmala Sitharaman, herself an erstwhile Defence Minister, clearly articulated India’s dependence on Russian support.
Many believe that India is walking a diplomatic tightrope and a prolonged conflict may force it to take a distinct position. As a democracy, it is expected to align with other democratic countries as indeed it is in the Indo-Pacific with the Quad being the most visible manifestation of its commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific. By aligning with Russia or remaining ‘neutral’, it risks being bracketed with a perceived Russia-China-Pakistan axis. This is improbable given its existing trust deficit with China and Pakistan which is unlikely to disappear in the near future with China aiming to contain India to advance its own aspirations in the Indian Ocean and Pakistan being a willing proxy to keep India on edge.
India has very deftly articulated its autonomous strategic position in the ongoing conflict; its national interest has taken precedence as indeed it should and has been emphatically conveyed by the Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister on more than one occasion. While its long-standing relationship and dependence on Russia cannot be wished away, its engagement and commitment to a democratically led world order is equally important. This conflict has indeed highlighted India’s importance on the global stage and respect for the stance it has taken. It is now for India to consolidate this position with a comprehensive nation building effort with its own security and economic interests at the helm.
(The author is Vice President, Indian Maritime Foundation. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).