Russia-Ukraine: As war clouds loom, India look to balance its ties with the US and Russia

Russia has recognised the ‘sovereignty’ of Luhansk and Donetsk. These two regions had declared their independence from Ukraine in 2014. Russia insisted on implementation of the Minsk Agreement which guaranteed autonomy to the Donbas region. But Kiev was lacklustre in taking the proposal further. However, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky miscalculated the move assuming that NATO will deter Russia from taking any action. Ukraine is paying the price for the half-hearted commitment of NATO. The Western threat of sanction is not enough to dissuade Russia from declaring the two regions as independent states. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has ordered its defence ministry to send peacekeeping forces in the region to secure it from a possible Ukrainian onslaught.

In his speech last night, President Putin stressed on two points: Russia’s historical role in creating the state of Ukraine in the last two centuries, and ulterior motives of NATO’s eastward expansion. “Russia is unwilling to accept the sovereignty of Ukraine to the extent that it can make a choice of joining NATO,” says an expert.

Sharing his views with Financial Express Online, Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU, says, “France, Germany and the US condemned the Russian recognition as ‘a unilateral violation of Russia’s international commitments and an attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty’. They are likely to impose harsh sanctions on Russia, and raise the issue in the UN Security Council. President Putin appeared prepared to bear high economic costs for the security of Russia.”

President Putin has cast the dice, and the decision cannot be revoked now.

“With new developments, Europe has entered a new phase of insecurity and crisis. The Minsk II agreement has become meaningless now. France and Germany have lost their credibility as negotiators. They will be under pressure to take tough measures against Russia.

Ukraine will never agree to the decision of Russia to recognise its territories as sovereign states. If it sought to reclaim the Donbas region by force, war was inevitable. The politics in Ukraine and Russia will become more conservative with the influence of security forces in decision-making,” Prof Rajan opines.

Will the current situation have an impact on Western negotiation on Iran and Afghanistan?

Yes. “At a larger level, developments in Ukraine will have direct bearing on the ongoing Western negotiations on Iran and Afghanistan. Russia will be far more assertive and rigid in its stances on these issues. NATO’s inability to take decisive measures against Russia will embolden China to ignore US threats in Taiwan and the South China Sea. New Delhi will find it increasingly difficult to hedge its interests. Moscow will become far more dependent on Beijing in the years to come. One may expect a military agreement between the two powers very soon,” Prof Rajan says.

Impact on India – view of an Indian Army Veteran

Should Russia invade Ukraine, how would it impact India? Can it stay neutral but at what cost?

These are some questions that Col Rajinder Singh (retd) has addressed while sharing his views with Financial Express Online.

“Its manoeuvrability will be badly affected. Therefore the question has very wide ramifications, bordering military, economical, strategic and Geo-political connotations. Its impact would be worse than Covid-19. India would be hemmed between trusted old friends, Russia on one hand and newly acquired strategic partner, the US on the other.”

How should it maintain a balance between the two?

“It will not only lead to sour relations with the two opposing blocks but also isolate India in the comity of nations. India would. Thus, become a “Strategic Infirm”, dampening its desire to be a global player,” Col Singh, a renowned author and a defence analyst explains.

Militarily speaking

According to the former Indian Army officer, “The Ukraine war would badly affect the defence and security of India. Firstly, it would delay or choke Russian military hardware, like the S -400 air defence system, needed for defence forces of India. Russia might refuse to provide other accessories for weapon systems acquired in the past. Even France and USA would be annoyed at Indian neutrality and stop further supply of weapons imported from them. Non availability of reserve -supply would undoubtedly impact military capabilities.“

Secondly, “With USA and western attention engaged with Russia and Ukraine, China might like to exploit the situation to capture Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) – Siachen region in Eastern Ladakh to safeguard its CPEC project. Pakistan might join China in this military adventure. A two front war could put India at a very big disadvantage due to reduced military capabilities. In such a scenario, it is anybody’s guess as to what would happen to J&K?”

Economic impact is much more serious

“It is no gain saying the fact that the West and USA would levy sanctions against Russia, This would impact Gas Supply to EU from Russia. USA being well – wisher of Europe, it will compel Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations of Middle East to divert their oil export to Europe. This would cut down Indian petroleum needs and retard economic growth besides affecting military capabilities. Further, MNCs of USA & West might withdraw their funds invested in Indian markets, thus further hampering economic growth,” Col Singh opines.

In his opinion, “Poor economic conditions and reduced military capabilities might bolster the spirits of separatists from J&K to the North east. There is a danger of destabilisation of India, leading to secessionist movements. It might seem a far-fetched argument but possibility cannot be ruled out.”

Finally, “India must pray that Russia does not invade Ukraine because it threatens to initiate a World War. It has serious repercussions for the unity of India. This is why India must become Self – reliant (Aatma Nirbhar) in defence capabilities and hope for the Ukraine crisis to blow over,” Col Singh concludes.