India can grow its exports to Russia seven-fold if it can crack the market for food, pharma, textiles and machinery, according to a study by trade policy think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)
India supplies barely 2.4% of Russia’s total imports of $ 202.6. While bilateral commerce is nearing $70bn, India’s exports remain stuck below $5bn and imports are overwhelmingly dominated by crude oil worth $ 50 billion. The bilateral trade has become an oil relationship rather than a broad trade partnership.
Trade deficit for India
In FY2025, India exported just $4.9bn worth of goods to Russia but imported $ 63.8bn, leaving a trade deficit of $58.9bn.
For trade with Russia to expand beyond oil purchases, India will need to rebuild the plumbing of commerce as much as the politics. With Russian banks largely shut out of SWIFT, payments remain the single biggest friction facing exporters, making deals slow, costly and uncertain, GTRI said.
How did the countries solve for this problem in the Soviet area?
In the Soviet era, the two sides solved this problem through a fixed rupee–rouble system, under which trade was settled at a pre-agreed exchange rate rather than in dollars, shielding commerce from currency risk and hard-currency shortages. To revive exports, New Delhi and Moscow will need a modern equivalent—along with regular buyer–seller meets, trade missions and institutional support
Russia imported $13 billion of food products in 2024, but India’s combined exports across fruits, oils, meat and dairy remain under $250 million. In pharmaceuticals, Russia bought $11.8 billion globally—but India captured only $413 million despite being a $23 billion global exporter.
Russia imported $29 billion of vehicles, $2.3 billion of furniture and $1.9 billion of toys—but India’s exports in these sectors were almost negligible.
In clothing, Russia bought $3.65 billion of knitwear and $3.03 billion of woven garments; India supplied just $24 million and $76 million. In industrial machinery, one of Russia’s largest import categories at $37 billion, India supplied $1.1billion, despite being a major global exporter. Electrical equipment imports into Russia stood at $20.5 billion, but India exported just $424 million.
The scope to expand in Russia is huge in sectors where India has proven competitiveness, ease of trade would help capture some of that potential.
“Without a modern rupee-rouble settlement system, Russia may remain India’s biggest oil supplier—but not a serious export market, the report added.