US stocks are busy painting a rosy picture in 2023. All major indices, including the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100, posted positive returns in the first quarter of 2023, making it a strong start to the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index has already entered a bull market after rising 20% from its prior lows.
So, is it the right time to enter the markets now? “The answer is Yes and No, depending on what is our risk-taking capacity and the time frame that we’re looking at for investments,” says Col.Sanjeev Govila (Retd), a SEBI Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), and CEO, Hum Fauji Initiatives, a financial planning firm.
But, the stock market rally has not been broad-based to date. The jump in tech stocks is even being viewed skeptically by industry experts. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, among the most prominent bearish voices on US equities, has recently warned the rally in tech stocks isn’t sustainable and that the sector will return to new lows.
“The main risks of the past – inflation, Russia- Ukraine war, lag in Chinese economy and supply chain issues – are still not under control. In fact, inflation is proving more stubborn than ever before with the jobs data refusing to come down, indicating an overheated economy. The Fed Reserve seems to have run out of options and the fact that any actions by it will only work on the US economy with a considerable lag, indicates that the pain has a long way to go. That forms the case for waiting it out and buying time before entering the markets,” says Col. Govila (Retd).
Further, the US Fed continues to face headwinds. While inflation still remains sticky, rising oil prices may pose an inflationary risk once again for the economy. “ There is no doubt that a continued QT by the Fed will stunt the growth – long as also short term – and do long-term damage to the world’s latest economy. Many leading economists are choosing growth over inflation as the route that the Fed should take.
The sudden demise of three banks, aided amply by investors sitting on the edge, indicates that any further QT may stress many smaller banks and financial institutions, leading to more complications than the US economy could have bargained for.
So, the Fed may take a chance to choose growth now and handle inflation by and by. The recent 25 bps increase when, in normal circumstances, more would have been better, is an indicator towards this changing mindset,” says Col. Govila (Retd).
For long-term investors, a dip or market crash is always a buying opportunity to create wealth over the long term. Col. Govila (Retd) has a cautious take for investors – All in all, as the cliche goes, nobody can time the market. The US economy has great valuations even now to invest. But the danger of markets trending down further, not counting any more black swan events, also remains.