The US re-claimed the slot of India’s top trading partner in January-June period of this calendar year with a growth of 5.3% to $ 62.5 billion but New Delhi’s largest trade deficit in the period was with China, according to a report by Global Trade Research Initiative. In 2023-24 China had overtaken the US as the top trading partner by small margin.
India’s foreign trade hit a record $849 billion in the first half of 2024, marking a 5.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023, driven by a 6.05% rise in exports.
“Country’s merchandise exports rose by 5.41% to $ 230.51 billion during the first of 2024. China topped the list with a substantial trade deficit of $ 41.6 billion, as exports to China were $ 8.5 billion, while imports reached $ 50.1 billion during January-June 2024,” the analysis by GTRI of first half trade data showed.
Industrial products led India’s exports with $140.79 billion, while agriculture, meat, and processed food exports faced a slight decline, notably with a 40.47% drop in sugar exports.
India exports goods to 239 countries and out of these, 126 countries showed positive growth. These countries account for 75.3 % of India’s total exports. Major countries with increased exports include the USA, UAE, Netherlands, Singapore, and China. However, exports to 98 countries, which account for 24.6 per cent of India’s exports, declined. These include Italy, Belgium, Nepal, and Hong Kong.
Exports to the US increased from $ 37.7 billion in January-June 2023 to $ 41.6 billion in January-June 2024, reflecting a growth of 10.5 per cent. The UAE saw a significant rise in exports, increasing from $ 15.8 billion to $19.7 billion, marking a 24.9 % growth
On the services front, exports grew by 6.9%, reaching $178.2 billion, although this pace is slower than the 17.7% surge witnessed in the same period of 2023. Services imports also saw a 5.79% increase, totaling $95 billion.
India’s exports of merchandise and services grew by 5.41% and 6.9%, respectively, from January to June 2024. However, China outpaced India with a 6.9% increase in merchandise exports and a notable 14% growth in services exports.
The latest Global Trade Update from UNCTAD, released on July 2, offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for global trade in 2024, with projected GDP growth around 3%. This growth is expected to be driven by higher exports from China (9%), India (7%), and the US (3%), while Europe’s exports remain stagnant, and Africa’s exports decline by 5%.
Low growth is due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and financial uncertainty.
But these factors will soon be overshadowed by a spate of new subsidies and protectionist measures by the EU and USA.
“India should continue to focus on increasing product quality and supply chain competitiveness. Since every big country is into inward mode, India should not surrender its policy space especially in new issues in FTAs and Indo Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity,” GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.