Tesla may be in line for a relatively big revenue boost from opening its fast-chargers to competitors, with a more incremental potential increase in earnings, according to a longtime bull.
Ford Motor, General Motors, and at least four other automakers have announced plans to adopt Tesla’s formerly proprietary plug design in exchange for access to the company’s Supercharger network. Baird analyst Ben Kallo sees the deals contributing up to $15.7 billion to Tesla’s top line by 2030, and adding as much as 45 cents to earnings per share.
Kallo, who’s had the equivalent of a buy rating on Tesla’s stock since October 2020, estimates that Tesla’s Superchargers are operating at an 8.75% utilisation rate now. If utilisation were to remain steady through the end of the decade, he estimates non-Tesla drivers would boost revenue by $5.22 billion and add just 15 cents to earnings per share.
The high end of Kallo’s estimates are based on the premise that automakers adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard, or NACS, will help lift Supercharger utilization to 26.25% by 2030. In addition to Ford and GM, automakers that have embraced NACS include Rivian Automotive, Volvo Car, Polestar and Mercedes-Benz.
“We view the opening of TSLA’s Supercharger network as a step toward NACS becoming the sole charger and estimate that the additional traffic will expand TSLA’s Services business,” Kallo wrote.
Tesla shares — which are coming out of a strong rally over the past month amid an investor frenzy for artificial intelligence stocks — were down 0.2% at 9:58 a.m. Tuesday in New York.
