The upcoming fifth annual US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in New Delhi will see the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. During their visit, they will hold discussions with their Indian counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. The primary focus of these meetings will encompass critical issues, including strengthening defence collaboration, exploring emerging technologies, addressing space-related matters, and adapting to the evolving global landscape.
Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, offers her perspective on the dialogue, stating, ‘Against the backdrop of a complex and ever-changing global landscape, the dialogue will serve as a platform to reaffirm the unwavering commitment of the United States and India to their global partnership and their shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.’
According to Aamer, this dialogue takes place amid ongoing international conflicts, such as the crisis in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which indirectly impact the strategic dynamics and global outlook of both nations. She adds, ‘The discussions will likely touch upon these crises, as they test the reformed international order that the U.S. and India have been advocating for.’
In Aamer’s view, India’s alignment with the Quad nations reflects its deepening engagement with like-minded partners to address pressing international challenges. Additionally, the US may emphasize the importance of India’s cooperation with the Canadian investigation, underlining the significance of adhering to international conventions. While this diplomatic challenge may arise, it serves as a reminder that differences over specific issues won’t derail the overall momentum in bilateral ties.
Beyond these challenges, the dialogue aims to expand the scope of cooperation into a diverse array of domains. This is not solely about defence but encompasses climate, energy, health, counterterrorism, education, and people-to-people connections.
In the defence sector, the current focus is on technology transfer and co-production, emphasizing innovation in enhancing military capabilities. The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) is expected to be on the agenda, along with the promotion of innovation through the India-US Defence Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X).
Scaling up climate action ahead of COP28 may also be a vital part of the dialogue. India’s call for developed nations to become carbon-negative by 2050 underscores the shared responsibility in addressing the urgent challenge of climate change.
Insights gained from the earlier 2+2 dialogue with India can inform the US delegation’s subsequent engagements in Korea and Indonesia. Shared priorities and agreements reached with India can be leveraged to strengthen bilateral relations with these key regional partners.
An interesting aspect to watch out for is any discussion related to the upcoming APEC summit and next year’s general elections in both India and the United States.
Regarding the former, PM Modi, although invited by President Biden as a guest at the summit, is unlikely to attend in person due to his domestic commitments and assembly election campaigns coinciding with the summit’s timing, she says.
However, President Biden’s expected meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit holds significance for U.S.-India relations. This meeting could shape the US approach to China, and India’s perspective on these developments is essential, considering the evolving dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, strained India-China relations, and the broader international landscape.
According to her, the elections, expectations and apprehensions may be discussed, as the outcome of the general elections and any change in leadership on both sides may have implications for the US-India strategic partnership, shaping priorities and determining the trajectory of the relationship in the coming years.