States take great pride in hosting multilateral summits. India will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Council of Heads of State virtually on July 4, 2023. It has a long association with the SCO, starting as an ‘Observer’ in 2005 and becoming a full member in 2017. New Delhi was preparing to host the meeting in a physical mode, but towards the end, it switched to a virtual format. Experts believe India’s focus on the G20, concerns about the presence of President Vladimir Putin, and its frosty ties with China and Pakistan contributed to the decision.
“The virtual Summit will not have the same impact as the in-person meeting, but in hindsight, it can be said that it was a good decision. Managing the physical event would have become a nightmare for the Indian diplomats. Instead of focusing on the multilateral aspects of the Summit, the gung-ho Indian media would have put the spotlight on leaders from China, Russia and Pakistan,” Dr Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU tells Financial Express Online. Adding, “That would have become a massive embarrassment for the Indian government. The virtual format saves New Delhi from potential awkwardness and unnecessary controversies.”
Dr Rajan Kumar, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU who has travelled extensively to the region, responds to questions related to the SCO Summit tomorrow.
Following are excerpts:
What is the relevance of the SCO, and what are its key objectives?
The SCO is a unique political and security organisation. It owes its origin to the Shanghai-5 grouping created in 1996. After the disintegration of the USSR, there was a high concern that border conflicts might erupt among Central Asia states. Central Asian states were also worried about their border issues with big powers such as Russia, China and Iran. China, in collaboration with Russia, devised mechanisms for regular consultation on border and security issues with Central Asian states through this grouping. The Shanghai-5 converted into Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) when the sixth state- Uzbekistan—joined the grouping.
The SCO is the most powerful organisation in Eurasia. It is not a regional organisation as it has members from various geographical regions. It is unique in that it includes all Central Asian states, barring Turkmenistan, and all the big neighbours. The SCO focuses mainly on Central Asian security issues, but developmental issues have been gradually included. It sometimes uses political rhetoric and criticises the West for regime change and hegemonic politics. That is expected as China and Russia are key drivers of the SCO.
The Eurasian region would have become a hotbed of ethnic strife, regime change and radicalism in the absence of this organisation. Smaller Central Asian states need the help of external powers to ensure their internal stability and check external influence. They face existential threats from big powers in the region and from the radical influences in the neighbourhood. To its credit, the SCO has created a geopolitical balance and has harmonised the interests of big powers in Central Asia. However, it has also checked the influence of the West in Eurasia.
In short, the SCO has contributed in three ways: political stability in Central Asia; harmonising interests of big powers in the region; and checking the spread of terrorism, separatism and radicalism.
How has India’s entry impacted the SCO?
India’s entry in 2017 has changed the character of the organisation. The SCO cannot be branded as the organisation of authoritarian states pursuing an anti-West agenda. Russia and Central Asian states backed India’s entry as a benevolent balancer and a potential regional investor. However, serious concerns exist about the impact of Sino-Indian and Pakistan-India border conflicts on the organisation. Further, Beijing and Moscow will have to cede some space to New Delhi as the latter becomes more active and engaged in the region. As a new member, New Delhi does not push its agenda much and focuses on collaborative developmental goals. It avoids confrontation. However, as India’s engagement grows in Central Asia, its role in SCO will also change.
How has the Wagner coup attempt in Russia impacted the SCO?
Stability in Russia is crucial to Eurasian stability. Like it or not, Russia remains the key security provider in Eurasia. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has alarmed some of the Central Asian states. Kazakhstan, for instance, has a sizeable Russian minority and fears a similar fate. The SCO must ameliorate the fears of smaller states. It must ensure that the sovereignty of each state is sacrosanct and that borders cannot be changed unilaterally by any power.
As for the Wagner rebellion, the group represents Russian chauvinism, conservatism and extreme illiberalism. All the leaders of the SCO prefer stability in Russia. None of the members would sympathise with the coup or its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin might be popular in Russia, but other states still view him as an oligarch who rose to power because of Putin and turned hostile because of his ambitions and successes in war. His credentials are very low, and his history is also dubious.
The SCO leaders have long associations with President Putin and prefer the status quo. Therefore, one can expect open and tacit support for President Putin’s regime during the SCO summit. Despite tremendous Western pressure, none of the SCO states ever condemned Russia for its war in Ukraine. They have also not joined Western sanctions. A concern does exist about developments in Russia, but that will not impact the SCO much.
How does the SCO matter for India?
The SCO remains exceptionally relevant for India. First, it fits into the larger framework of India’s multi-alignment policy. India’s association with the SCO and the BRICS validates its multi-alignment policy. Second, India has geopolitical interests in Eurasia due to security and commercial reasons. A volatile Central Asia would be dangerous for India too. Third, India’s outreach to Central Asia would be constrained if it were not a member of this organisation. China and Pakistan would create hostile conditions for India in the region. Third, India’s membership helps Russia and Central Asian states soft-balance China in the region. Fourth, the Central Asian states look forward to intense economic engagement with India. New Delhi needs to focus on Central Asia’s developmental, connectivity and infrastructural projects.
How do border conflicts among members impact the SCO?
As a multilateral organisation, the SCO avoids controversial bilateral issues. Therefore, Sino-India, Pak-India or Tajik-Kyrgyz border issues will not figure in the agenda of the Summit. The SCO charter prohibits and states deliberately avoid slugfest over contentious bilateral issues.
This is not to suggest that bilateral issues do not impact the SCO. The fact that the Summit is being held online is itself an outcome of tension between its member states. But multilateral organisations also have moderating effects on conflicts. States and leaders avoid conflicts with the members to avoid embarrassment. Further, sharing of information leads to better trust and cordiality. The socialisation of leaders and organisational norms also prohibit states from turning aggressive.
Finally, regarding the future of the SCO?
SCO will remain an active organisation in Eurasia irrespective of turmoil in any specific country. It caters to the greater needs of the Eurasian region in balancing the cross-cutting interests, providing a broader security architecture, and empowering the Central Asian states. All the member states support the organisation and value its importance. Its significance will grow in the region as China becomes more active and engaged. New Delhi must remain engaged with the organisation for its benefit in the long run.