Brazilian aerospace giant Embraer has unveiled its Market Outlook 2024, projecting a significant demand for commercial aircraft in the sub-150-seat category over the next two decades. The report, presented at the Farnborough International Airshow, forecasts 10,500 new orders for jets and turboprops by 2043, valued at USD 640 billion. This comprehensive analysis highlights the increasing importance of small narrow body aircraft and examines global trends across six key regions.
The Rising Relevance of Small Narrow Bodies
The market for sub-150-seat aircraft is growing due to the operational and economic benefits they offer for medium and lower-density routes. Larger jets are not always the best choice for these markets, especially where frequent service is needed to maintain connectivity. Small narrow bodies can serve these routes more effectively and profitably, complementing fleets with larger aircraft. As average aircraft sizes in major regions increase, a mixed fleet strategy becomes vital for airlines to meet diverse network needs.
Insights from Embraer’s Leadership
Arjan Meijer, President & CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, emphasized the strategic advantages of a mixed fleet: “A fleet combining sub-150-seat jets with larger narrowbodies will be essential for the next 20 years. The post-pandemic environment has reshaped passenger and demand patterns, and e-commerce is on the rise. While carriers expand capacity in major markets, smaller cities still require high-frequency connections. Sub-150-seat aircraft are the most efficient and cost-effective solution for this.”
Key Figures from the Market Outlook
World Passenger Traffic and Regional Growth
Global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), has returned to 2019 levels, except in the Asia Pacific/China region. RPKs are expected to grow at an annual rate of 4% through 2043.
Annual RPK growth rates by region:
Asia Pacific (including China): 5.0%; Latin America: 4.9%; Africa: 4.4%; Middle East: 4.4%; Europe: 3.3%; and North America: 2.4%.
Demand and Delivery Projections
Global demand for new sub-150-seat aircraft: 10,500 units, comprising 8,470 jets and 2,030 turboprops.
Market value of new aircraft: USD 640 billion.
Regional Distribution of Jet Deliveries (8,470 units):
North America: 2,610 (30.8%); China & Asia Pacific: 2,260 (26.7%); Europe & CIS: 2,110 (24.9%); Latin America: 770 (9.1%); Africa: 380 (4.5%); and Middle East: 340 (4.0%).
Regional Distribution of Turboprop Deliveries (2,030 units)
China & Asia Pacific: 980 (48.3%); North America: 350 (17.2%); Europe & CIS: 290 (14.3%); Africa: 220 (10.8%); Latin America: 160 (7.9%); and Middle East: 30 (1.5%).
Expanding Cargo Market Opportunities
The Market Outlook also explores the potential for small narrowbody freighters, driven by the growth in online commerce. This segment presents new opportunities for airlines to meet the increasing demand for cargo transportation efficiently.
Bottomline
Embraer’s Market Outlook 2024 underscores the critical role of sub-150-seat jets and turboprops in the evolving aviation landscape. With a focus on efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and the ability to serve diverse markets, these aircraft are poised to meet the changing demands of the industry over the next two decades.