The possibility of a cyber-attack on any NATO member country escalating into a real war is a pressing concern. This question is particularly relevant as the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has started establishing ‘cyber labs’ in countries bordering Russia, signalling an increased focus on cyber defence. 

Admiral Ruber’s Warning

At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue (31 May-2 June) in Singapore, NATO commander Lieutenant Admiral Bob Ruber highlighted the potential for cyber-attacks to trigger conventional warfare. He stated, “War can start due to cyber-attack,” emphasizing that if a NATO member’s essential services are disrupted by a cyber-attack, NATO could invoke Article 5 and initiate a collective military response. While Admiral Ruber did not explicitly name Russia, the implication was clear given the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

NATO’s Cyber Defence Initiatives

Admiral Ruber’s statement coincides with reports that NATO is setting up cyber labs in countries bordering Russia, such as Estonia, Latvia, Finland, and Romania. These labs are part of NATO’s broader strategy to strengthen cyber defences. For instance, NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Center of Excellence in Tallinn, Estonia, focuses on training, exercises, research, and development of cyber experts. Estonia, which recently had border tensions with Russia, exemplifies the strategic importance of these cyber facilities.

NATO employs around 200 cyber experts who manage and analyse daily cyber incidents. In addition to collaborating with approximately 40 countries, NATO also partners with more than a dozen private tech companies to bolster its cyber defences.

Future Expansion and Historical Context

Looking ahead, NATO is expected to establish cyber labs in other countries like Georgia and Moldova. Georgia, in particular, experienced a significant cyber-attack in 2008, which is widely attributed to Russia. During this attack, critical websites, including those of the Georgian President, Parliament, and National Bank, were compromised, severely disrupting the country’s banking system.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Cyber Warfare

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further highlighted the intersection of cyber and kinetic warfare. Recently, SpaceX owner Elon Musk revealed that Russia had jammed Starlink Internet service in Kharkiv, Ukraine, which the Ukrainian military relied on for communication. Previously, Russia had also jammed the US Army’s ViaSat communication system, further complicating military operations for Ukraine.

Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, NATO has recorded 1,998 cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure in both Russia and Ukraine. These attacks have also impacted other countries, underscoring the pervasive threat of cyber warfare. NATO acknowledges that cyber-attacks often accompany traditional warfare, amplifying their impact on civilian life.

Russia’s Allegations

Russia has accused the US of waging hybrid warfare in the information domain, using Ukraine as a testing ground for cyber-attacks. According to Russia, Ukraine’s IT army and hackers, supported by the US and NATO, have launched electronic warfare against Russia.