Recent trends in US consumer spending suggest that the natural forces of pent-up demand may largely be spent
The problem, of course, lies in internet governance—namely, the absence of rules. The virtues of cyber-libertarianism have become inseparable from…
The double dip of early 2021 will be a painful reminder of the lingering vulnerability of the US business cycle…
As market celebrate the coming vaccine-led bloom, epidemiological and political aftershocks have pushed the US back into heightened economic vulnerability
Negative net domestic savings in the US and a soaring current-account deficit will weaken the dollar quite fast
Soaring financial markets are blithely indifferent to lingering vulnerabilities in the US economy. But the impact of consumers’ fear of…
As the world’s most unloved major currency, € may well be headed for an exceptional run of its own. Downward…
No country can afford to squander its saving potential—ultimately, the seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the…
The economic response to COVID-19 will far lag the virus infection curve.
Global growth moving into the lower half of the 2.5-3.5% range leaves the world more susceptible to a recession.
The best that economists can do is to assess vulnerability. Looking at imbalances in the financial markets gives a sense…
A recent IMF study found that GVCs accounted for fully 73% of the rapid growth in global trade that occurred…
Multilateral problems require solutions aimed at the macroeconomic imbalances on which they rest. That could mean a reciprocal market-opening framework
In 2018, net exports were just 0.8% of China’s GDP, which represents a dramatic compression from a decade earlier, when…
Japan and China both became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat for its own economic problems
Productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth in determining a country’s development prospects
Chinese policymakers have moved aggressively to avoid the dreaded Japan syndrome—not just a debt overhang, but also a profusion of…
From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the…
