The economic crisis of 2020: Financial market imbalances point to vulnerability
The best that economists can do is to assess vulnerability. Looking at imbalances in the financial markets gives a sense of the potential consequences of a major shock
Politics of US-China trade war point toward de-escalation
A recent IMF study found that GVCs accounted for fully 73% of the rapid growth in global trade that occurred over the 20-year period from 1993 to 2013.
Tariff wars: No art to the US-China trade deal
Multilateral problems require solutions aimed at the macroeconomic imbalances on which they rest. That could mean a reciprocal market-opening framework
China’s visionary economic policy: The country is less concerned about sudden growth accidents
In 2018, net exports were just 0.8% of China’s GDP, which represents a dramatic compression from a decade earlier, when net exports accounted for a full 7.5% of real GDP. While hardly an oasis in a weakening global economy,
What is common in China and Japan? Both are victims of US trade war
Japan and China both became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat for its own economic problems
No middle-income trap for China, shift in output from quantity to quality
Productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth in determining a country’s development prospects
US-China trade war: With ample policy space to address trade slowdown, China has no need to abandon long-term strategy
Chinese policymakers have moved aggressively to avoid the dreaded Japan syndrome—not just a debt overhang, but also a profusion of zombie companies and related productivity challenges.
US Monetary Policy: The Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy normalisation
From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the US economy.
The internationalisation of inflation: Assess risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Understanding inflation now requires the broadening of the assessment of risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Ending US-China economic war: Yale professor & former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman suggests this
Transforming a zero-sum conflict of codependency into a positive-sum relationship of mutually beneficial interdependence is the only way to end this economic war.
Trade tensions: The current account is what counts
America’s trade gaps have, in fact, been spawned by a chronic deficiency of domestic US saving, averaging just 1.9% over the 2009-17 period.
QE lessons on its 10th anniversary
The taper tantrum of 2013 and the current travails of EMEs underscore the contagion of cross-market spillovers arising from QE
When power politics overcome economic rationale
The us president’s fiscal and trade policies show no appreciation of the linkage between trade deficits and macroeconomic saving-investment imbalances.
A bilateral facade: A Chinese escapade for America’s multilateral issues
There is a longstanding disconnect between bilateral and multilateral approaches to international economic problems.
The US’s weak case against China
In short, the USTR’s seemingly impressive Section 301 report is a biased political document that has further inflamed anti-China sentiment in the US.
No e’XI’t: China as seen from a glass house
China will likely stay its current course. Normal leadership Succession or not, It can’t now turn Back from a transition that has brought it to the brink of prosperity
Weak signals from the US: The myth of sound fundamentals
The multilateral foreign-trade deficits of a saving-short US economy set the stage for perhaps the most egregious policy blunder being committed by the Trump administration: a shift toward protectionism.
Why Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures can spark retaliatory measures
The Trump administration's recent protectionist measures, aimed at china & South korea, can spark retaliatory measures that will only leave americans worse off.
Complacency will be tested in 2018
Real economies rest on asset prices distorted by the execssively accommodative policies of central bank; glacial normalisation only prolongs this dependency
America’s supply-side scam
Congressional Republicans’ proposed tax cuts—masquerading as tax reform—are no recipe to “make America great again”.
China’s growth path must resolve many contradictions
China’s principal contradiction—tension unbalanced & inadequate development and people’s need for a better life—flags what its long-term strategy is missing
The US and China’s codependency trap
Any action by the US against Chinese imports will effectively translate as a tax hike, and counter-measures by China will hit US exports hard.
Deciphering China’s economic resilience
The Chinese economy is drawing support from strong sources of cyclical resilience in early 2017. The 11.3% y-o-y gain in exports recorded in June stands in sharp contrast with earlier years, which were adversely affected by a
Another lesson from Japan
Monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; BoJ compounded the problem by embracing quantitative easing.
Rethinking the Next China
For the past seven years, I have taught a popular class at Yale, called “The Next China.”
Global economy: A world turned inside out
While some healing of an $80 trillion global economy is now evident, progress needs to be seen through a different lens than used in past cycles.
Why China should resist temptation, stay focused on domestic strategy
Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China.
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