Rate action: The Fed must think creatively again
By fixating on the risks of a Japanese-style deflation, the Fed all but ignored the possibility of a major upside inflation surprise
Connecting the dots in China
The dual thrust of Chinese policy—redistribution plus re-regulation—will subdue the entrepreneurial activity that has been powering China’s dynamic private sector
What to make of China’s animal spirits deficit
Modern China lacks the foundation of trust in consistent leadership priorities and transparent governance that underpins animal spirits
Boxed in on China
The Biden administration needs to abandon the unworkable bilateral framework of the phase one deal and the tariffs that support it
The limits to the US’s pent up demand
Recent trends in US consumer spending suggest that the natural forces of pent-up demand may largely be spent
The internet versus democracy
The problem, of course, lies in internet governance—namely, the absence of rules. The virtues of cyber-libertarianism have become inseparable from its vices
Recovery or relapse? The pandemic’s long economic shadow
The double dip of early 2021 will be a painful reminder of the lingering vulnerability of the US business cycle in the aftermath of a major recessionary shock
Recovery outlook: A tale of two economies
As market celebrate the coming vaccine-led bloom, epidemiological and political aftershocks have pushed the US back into heightened economic vulnerability
The vise tightens on the dollar
Negative net domestic savings in the US and a soaring current-account deficit will weaken the dollar quite fast
America’s coming double dip
Soaring financial markets are blithely indifferent to lingering vulnerabilities in the US economy. But the impact of consumers’ fear of Covid-19 on pandemic-sensitive services is unlikely to subside, undermining the case fo
From American to European exceptionalism: Unlike the US, Europe has risen to opportunities presented by COVID-19 crisis
As the world’s most unloved major currency, € may well be headed for an exceptional run of its own. Downward pressure on $ will only intensify as a result
Covid-19: Hyper-extended saving, current-account imbalances will have consequences for dollar
No country can afford to squander its saving potential—ultimately, the seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the United States, where the laws of economics have often been ignored under the guise of
Coronavirus hits China’s growth: Economic response to farlag the virus infection curve
The economic response to COVID-19 will far lag the virus infection curve.
A global economy without a cushion: World staring at a recession?
Global growth moving into the lower half of the 2.5-3.5% range leaves the world more susceptible to a recession.
The economic crisis of 2020: Financial market imbalances point to vulnerability
The best that economists can do is to assess vulnerability. Looking at imbalances in the financial markets gives a sense of the potential consequences of a major shock
Politics of US-China trade war point toward de-escalation
A recent IMF study found that GVCs accounted for fully 73% of the rapid growth in global trade that occurred over the 20-year period from 1993 to 2013.
Tariff wars: No art to the US-China trade deal
Multilateral problems require solutions aimed at the macroeconomic imbalances on which they rest. That could mean a reciprocal market-opening framework
China’s visionary economic policy: The country is less concerned about sudden growth accidents
In 2018, net exports were just 0.8% of China’s GDP, which represents a dramatic compression from a decade earlier, when net exports accounted for a full 7.5% of real GDP. While hardly an oasis in a weakening global economy,
What is common in China and Japan? Both are victims of US trade war
Japan and China both became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat for its own economic problems
No middle-income trap for China, shift in output from quantity to quality
Productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth in determining a country’s development prospects
US-China trade war: With ample policy space to address trade slowdown, China has no need to abandon long-term strategy
Chinese policymakers have moved aggressively to avoid the dreaded Japan syndrome—not just a debt overhang, but also a profusion of zombie companies and related productivity challenges.
US Monetary Policy: The Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy normalisation
From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the US economy.
The internationalisation of inflation: Assess risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Understanding inflation now requires the broadening of the assessment of risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Ending US-China economic war: Yale professor & former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman suggests this
Transforming a zero-sum conflict of codependency into a positive-sum relationship of mutually beneficial interdependence is the only way to end this economic war.
Trade tensions: The current account is what counts
America’s trade gaps have, in fact, been spawned by a chronic deficiency of domestic US saving, averaging just 1.9% over the 2009-17 period.
QE lessons on its 10th anniversary
The taper tantrum of 2013 and the current travails of EMEs underscore the contagion of cross-market spillovers arising from QE
When power politics overcome economic rationale
The us president’s fiscal and trade policies show no appreciation of the linkage between trade deficits and macroeconomic saving-investment imbalances.
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