Stephen S Roach

Articles By Stephen S Roach

46 Articles

China’s visionary economic policy: The country is less concerned about sudden growth accidents

In 2018, net exports were just 0.8% of China’s GDP, which represents a dramatic compression from a decade earlier, when net exports accounted for a full 7.5% of real GDP. While hardly an oasis in a weakening global economy,

china, china economy, US tariff war, China-US tariff war, global financial crisis, Donald Trump, economy news, world economy, singapore, china, export, china export, Gross domestic product, economy news

What is common in China and Japan? Both are victims of US trade war

Japan and China both became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat for its own economic problems

China, Japan, US trade war, Ronald Reagan, US trade deficits, GDP,  World Trade Organization, global supply chains, US economy, donald trump News

No middle-income trap for China, shift in output from quantity to quality

Productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth in determining a country’s development prospects

Chinese economic growth, china, china economy, china gdp, China Development Forum, beijing, china middle-income trap News

US-China trade war: With ample policy space to address trade slowdown, China has no need to abandon long-term strategy

Chinese policymakers have moved aggressively to avoid the dreaded Japan syndrome—not just a debt overhang, but also a profusion of zombie companies and related productivity challenges.

Opinion News

US Monetary Policy: The Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy normalisation

From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the US economy.

dollar, dollar value, US stocks, US stock market, united States, wall street, currencies, market news

The internationalisation of inflation: Assess risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps

Understanding inflation now requires the broadening of the assessment of risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps

internationalisation of inflation, risk factors, domestic output gaps, global output gaps, consumer price index News

Ending US-China economic war: Yale professor & former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman suggests this

Transforming a zero-sum conflict of codependency into a positive-sum relationship of mutually beneficial interdependence is the only way to end this economic war.

us, china, economy News

Trade tensions: The current account is what counts

America’s trade gaps have, in fact, been spawned by a chronic deficiency of domestic US saving, averaging just 1.9% over the 2009-17 period.

Opinion News

QE lessons on its 10th anniversary

The taper tantrum of 2013 and the current travails of EMEs underscore the contagion of cross-market spillovers arising from QE

Opinion News

When power politics overcome economic rationale

The us president’s fiscal and trade policies show no appreciation of the linkage between trade deficits and macroeconomic saving-investment imbalances.

World News

A bilateral facade: A Chinese escapade for America’s multilateral issues

There is a longstanding disconnect between bilateral and multilateral approaches to international economic problems.

Opinion News

The US’s weak case against China

In short, the USTR’s seemingly impressive Section 301 report is a biased political document that has further inflamed anti-China sentiment in the US.

US, China, unfair trading News

No e’XI’t: China as seen from a glass house

China will likely stay its current course. Normal leadership Succession or not, It can’t now turn Back from a transition that has brought it to the brink of prosperity

china, chinese president xi xinping. chinese leadership News

Weak signals from the US: The myth of sound fundamentals

The multilateral foreign-trade deficits of a saving-short US economy set the stage for perhaps the most egregious policy blunder being committed by the Trump administration: a shift toward protectionism.

US stock market, united states stock growth, US economy, united states, US tax reform News

Why Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures can spark retaliatory measures

The Trump administration's recent protectionist measures, aimed at china & South korea, can spark retaliatory measures that will only leave americans worse off.

donald trump, trump administration, india, us, trade News

Complacency will be tested in 2018

Real economies rest on asset prices distorted by the execssively accommodative policies of central bank; glacial normalisation only prolongs this dependency

global economy, World GDP growth, Bitcoin, US, china, United States, Bank for International Settlements, Great Recession, IMF, CAPE, North Korea, trade war  News

America’s supply-side scam

Congressional Republicans’ proposed tax cuts—masquerading as tax reform—are no recipe to “make America great again”.

Tax cuts, supply-side scam, tax reform, policy gambit, Donald Trump, tax relief News

China’s growth path must resolve many contradictions

China’s principal contradiction—tension unbalanced & inadequate development and people’s need for a better life—flags what its long-term strategy is missing

china, china growth, Xi Jinping, Communist Party congresses, Mao Zedong Thought, People Republic of China, Hu Jintao,  Jiang Zemin, 19th National Congress News

The US and China’s codependency trap

Any action by the US against Chinese imports will effectively translate as a tax hike, and counter-measures by China will hit US exports hard.

US, China, trade, Chinese trade News

Deciphering China’s economic resilience

The Chinese economy is drawing support from strong sources of cyclical resilience in early 2017. The 11.3% y-o-y gain in exports recorded in June stands in sharp contrast with earlier years, which were adversely affected by a

China, india china standoff, sikkim standoff, China growth debate, Great Financial Crisis, Great Financial Crisis in china, Chinese economy, economies on China, other countries on china News

Another lesson from Japan

Monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; BoJ compounded the problem by embracing quantitative easing.

Opinion News

Rethinking the Next China

For the past seven years, I have taught a popular class at Yale, called “The Next China.”

China economy, China economy improves, Chinese firms, CBB, Communist Party of China, Chinese companies News

Global economy: A world turned inside out

While some healing of an $80 trillion global economy is now evident, progress needs to be seen through a different lens than used in past cycles.

global economy, International Monetary Fund, Great Financial Crisis, GDP growth, financial markets, Great Financial Crisis News

Why China should resist temptation, stay focused on domestic strategy

Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China.

Chinese economy, Premier Li Keqiang, China Development Forum, National People’s Congress, globalisation, digitisation, Trump effect, Donald Trump, New Development Bank, manufacturing News

The Achilles’ heel of Trumponomics

It is a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits

donald trump, trump, donald trump dead, dead donald trump, dead trump, trump dead, trump time bomb, donald trump heart attack, how trump will die, how donald trump will die, witll trump die, is donald trump dead, whether donald trump is dead or alive, us, us news, donald trump news, trump news, financial express, daily star News

The world economy without China

A post-crisis world economy without Chinese growth would be in grave difficulty

Opinion News

Desperate central bankers

The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks—the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Opinion News