Recovery or relapse? The pandemic’s long economic shadow
The double dip of early 2021 will be a painful reminder of the lingering vulnerability of the US business cycle in the aftermath of a major recessionary shock
Recovery outlook: A tale of two economies
As market celebrate the coming vaccine-led bloom, epidemiological and political aftershocks have pushed the US back into heightened economic vulnerability
The vise tightens on the dollar
Negative net domestic savings in the US and a soaring current-account deficit will weaken the dollar quite fast
America’s coming double dip
Soaring financial markets are blithely indifferent to lingering vulnerabilities in the US economy. But the impact of consumers’ fear of Covid-19 on pandemic-sensitive services is unlikely to subside, undermining the case fo
From American to European exceptionalism: Unlike the US, Europe has risen to opportunities presented by COVID-19 crisis
As the world’s most unloved major currency, € may well be headed for an exceptional run of its own. Downward pressure on $ will only intensify as a result
Covid-19: Hyper-extended saving, current-account imbalances will have consequences for dollar
No country can afford to squander its saving potential—ultimately, the seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the United States, where the laws of economics have often been ignored under the guise of
Coronavirus hits China’s growth: Economic response to farlag the virus infection curve
The economic response to COVID-19 will far lag the virus infection curve.
A global economy without a cushion: World staring at a recession?
Global growth moving into the lower half of the 2.5-3.5% range leaves the world more susceptible to a recession.
The economic crisis of 2020: Financial market imbalances point to vulnerability
The best that economists can do is to assess vulnerability. Looking at imbalances in the financial markets gives a sense of the potential consequences of a major shock
Politics of US-China trade war point toward de-escalation
A recent IMF study found that GVCs accounted for fully 73% of the rapid growth in global trade that occurred over the 20-year period from 1993 to 2013.
Tariff wars: No art to the US-China trade deal
Multilateral problems require solutions aimed at the macroeconomic imbalances on which they rest. That could mean a reciprocal market-opening framework
China’s visionary economic policy: The country is less concerned about sudden growth accidents
In 2018, net exports were just 0.8% of China’s GDP, which represents a dramatic compression from a decade earlier, when net exports accounted for a full 7.5% of real GDP. While hardly an oasis in a weakening global economy,
What is common in China and Japan? Both are victims of US trade war
Japan and China both became victims of America’s unfortunate habit of making others the scapegoat for its own economic problems
No middle-income trap for China, shift in output from quantity to quality
Productivity growth is far more important than GDP growth in determining a country’s development prospects
US-China trade war: With ample policy space to address trade slowdown, China has no need to abandon long-term strategy
Chinese policymakers have moved aggressively to avoid the dreaded Japan syndrome—not just a debt overhang, but also a profusion of zombie companies and related productivity challenges.
US Monetary Policy: The Fed should be congratulated for its steadfast commitment to policy normalisation
From bubble to bubble, from crisis to crisis, there were increasingly compelling reasons to question the Fed’s stewardship of the US economy.
The internationalisation of inflation: Assess risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Understanding inflation now requires the broadening of the assessment of risk factors of domestic output gaps to global output gaps
Ending US-China economic war: Yale professor & former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman suggests this
Transforming a zero-sum conflict of codependency into a positive-sum relationship of mutually beneficial interdependence is the only way to end this economic war.
Trade tensions: The current account is what counts
America’s trade gaps have, in fact, been spawned by a chronic deficiency of domestic US saving, averaging just 1.9% over the 2009-17 period.
QE lessons on its 10th anniversary
The taper tantrum of 2013 and the current travails of EMEs underscore the contagion of cross-market spillovers arising from QE
When power politics overcome economic rationale
The us president’s fiscal and trade policies show no appreciation of the linkage between trade deficits and macroeconomic saving-investment imbalances.
A bilateral facade: A Chinese escapade for America’s multilateral issues
There is a longstanding disconnect between bilateral and multilateral approaches to international economic problems.
The US’s weak case against China
In short, the USTR’s seemingly impressive Section 301 report is a biased political document that has further inflamed anti-China sentiment in the US.
No e’XI’t: China as seen from a glass house
China will likely stay its current course. Normal leadership Succession or not, It can’t now turn Back from a transition that has brought it to the brink of prosperity
Weak signals from the US: The myth of sound fundamentals
The multilateral foreign-trade deficits of a saving-short US economy set the stage for perhaps the most egregious policy blunder being committed by the Trump administration: a shift toward protectionism.
Why Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures can spark retaliatory measures
The Trump administration's recent protectionist measures, aimed at china & South korea, can spark retaliatory measures that will only leave americans worse off.
Complacency will be tested in 2018
Real economies rest on asset prices distorted by the execssively accommodative policies of central bank; glacial normalisation only prolongs this dependency
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Top News
- COVID-19 Vaccine update: Dr Reddy's gets DCGI nod to conduct phase 3 clinical trials for Sputnik V
- New strains of coronavirus: Britain tightens borders to keep out new COVID-19 strains
- Budget 2021: UKIBC seeks corporate tax rate parity between foreign, domestic companies
- Planning to install rooftop solar plant? Beware of fake claims! Govt says only DISCOMS are authorised
- COVID-19: Sebi gives relaxation to companies from compliance with certain LODR provisions
- PFC's Rs 5000 crore taxable non-convertible debentures subscribed 94% on Day 1; Details here
- Covid-19 vaccination drive to begin tomorrow, here’s how states are geared up for rollout
- Beware! Big fines for no seat belts at the rear and two-wheelers without rearview mirrors
- Russian algorithm claims to detect signs of COVID-19 from voice, coughs and breathing in just 60 seconds!
- Economy likely to contract up to 7.5% this fiscal, may see 9-11% growth in FY22: Former CEA Arvind Virmani
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