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Stephen S Roach
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The US’s weak case against China
In short, the USTR’s seemingly impressive Section 301 report is a biased political document that has further inflamed anti-China sentiment in the US.
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No e’XI’t: China as seen from a glass house
China will likely stay its current course. Normal leadership Succession or not, It can’t now turn Back from a transition that has brought it to the brink of prosperity
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Weak signals from the US: The myth of sound fundamentals
The multilateral foreign-trade deficits of a saving-short US economy set the stage for perhaps the most egregious policy blunder being committed by the Trump administration: a shift toward protectionism.
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Why Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures can spark retaliatory measures
The Trump administration’s recent protectionist measures, aimed at china & South korea, can spark retaliatory measures that will only leave americans worse off.
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Complacency will be tested in 2018
Real economies rest on asset prices distorted by the execssively accommodative policies of central bank; glacial normalisation only prolongs this dependency
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America’s supply-side scam
Congressional Republicans’ proposed tax cuts—masquerading as tax reform—are no recipe to “make America great again”.
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China’s growth path must resolve many contradictions
China’s principal contradiction—tension unbalanced & inadequate development and people’s need for a better life—flags what its long-term strategy is missing
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The US and China’s codependency trap
Any action by the US against Chinese imports will effectively translate as a tax hike, and counter-measures by China will hit US exports hard.
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Deciphering China’s economic resilience
The Chinese economy is drawing support from strong sources of cyclical resilience in early 2017. The 11.3% y-o-y gain in exports recorded in June stands in sharp contrast with earlier years, which were adversely affected by a weaker post-crisis global recovery.
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Another lesson from Japan
Monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; BoJ compounded the problem by embracing quantitative easing.
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Rethinking the Next China
For the past seven years, I have taught a popular class at Yale, called “The Next China.”
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Global economy: A world turned inside out
While some healing of an $80 trillion global economy is now evident, progress needs to be seen through a different lens than used in past cycles.
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Why China should resist temptation, stay focused on domestic strategy
Another growth scare has come and gone for the Chinese economy. This, of course, is very much at odds with Western conventional wisdom, which has long expected a hard landing in China.
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The Achilles’ heel of Trumponomics
It is a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits
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The world economy without China
A post-crisis world economy without Chinese growth would be in grave difficulty
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Desperate central bankers
The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks—the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
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Global growth: Still Made-in-China
Despite all the hand-wringing over the vaunted China slowdown, the Chinese economy remains the single-largest contributor to world GDP growth.
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The globalisation disconnect
With world trade shifting to a decidedly lower trajectory, political resistance to globalisation has intensified
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Column: America’s savings peril
US policy is keeping the country’s consumption binge going, despite the implications for its saving imperative.
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Column: America’s trade deficit begins at home
The real reason behind the massive multilateral trade deficit is that Americans don’t save
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Column: China’s economic identity crisis
The shift in focus from consumer-led rebalancing to supply-side reforms is premature.
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Column: Central banking goes negative
Focus on the demand side of crisis-battered economies, where a debt-rejection syndrome is impairing growth
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Column: False alarm on China
Its strong tertiary sector and massive forex reserves provide a buffer against any crisis and social instability
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Column: The perils of Fed gradualism
Today’s Fed inherits the deeply entrenched moral hazard of the asset economy
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Column: China’s macro disconnect
It has to address the causes of households’ high precautionary saving and low discretionary spending.
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Column: The wrong war for central banking
Inflation-targeting was once essential to limit runaway price growth. Today, it is counterproductive
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Column: The US-China codependency trap
The US’s unease with a changing China reflects a failure to address its core economic problems
