Industrial growth, which has been hit by the higher interest rates, is likely to see the scenario harden with the power situation worsening in the current fiscal year. Projections about the anticipated power supply position, brought out in the Load Generation Balance Report for 2011-12 by the Central Electricity Authority, indicates the power deficit will increase substantially in most states, with some of the important industrial states being among the worst hit.

The numbers released late last week show that the energy deficit will go up from 73,236 million units in 2010-11 to 96,376 million units in 2011-12, pushing up the shortfall from 8.5% to 10.3%. Similarly, the peak power deficit will go up from 12,031 MW to 17,517 MW, raising the level of deficit from 9.8% to 12.9% during the period.

Apart from the steep rise in deficit, the power scenario is to be affected by the extensive shortfall across almost all regions. However, the trends are not uniform. The biggest impact is likely to be on the southern states where the energy deficit is likely to double from 5.2% in 2010-11 to 10.5% in 2011-12, with shortfall going up from 11,923 MU to 26,210 MU during the period . The deficit in peak power supply is projected to more than double from 6.4% in 2010-11 to 14.5% in 2011-12, with the shortage going up from 2135 MW to 5388 MW during the period.

Though the energy deficit in the northern region is expected to increase only from 8% to 10.9%, the impact on the economy will even be sharper as the shortfall will shoot up from 20,795 MU to 30,436 MU. But the peak period deficit of 11.9% in the northern region in 2011-12 will be lower than in the south, with the shortfall at 4,860 MW during the year.

Surprisingly, though the power shortfall in the western region is expected to dip with the energy deficit going down f rom 13.3% to 11% and the peak deficit sliding from 14.7% to 10.9% the region will continue to have the largest shortfall in nominal term with the energy shortfall remaining at a 31,520 MU in 2011-12. However, the peak deficit will go down from 5,979 MW to 4641 MW in the region.

Another region where the power deficit is expected to increase substantially is the east where the shortfall will more double from 4,032 MU in 2010-11 to 8,167 MU in 2011-12 and the peak deficit from 682 MW to 1,986 MW. This will push up the energy deficit from 4.3% to 7.7% and the peak deficit from 5% to 11.6%.

However, surprisingly the projections of the CEA show that the north-eastern region will buck the all-India trends, with the deficit levels shrinking sharply. Energy deficit in the region will go down from 86 MU to 34 MU while the peak deficit will slide from 353 MW to 130 MW. Consequently, the energy deficit will decline from 8.8% in 2010-11 to 0.3% while the peak deficit will shrink from 18.5% to 5.9% in the region.

CEA?s state-wise projections present a more detailed scenario. The overall numbers show that 25 out of the 34 states and Union territories will have energy deficits during 2011-12 while 28 states and UTs will have a peak load deficit. On the positive side nine states will have an energy surplus in 2011-12 and six will have a peak load surplus during the year.

Among energy deficit states the biggest shortfall in absolute units of power will be in Maharashtra, which will have a shortfall of 23,509 million units, or about a quarter of the net shortfall in the country as a whole. The other major deficit states include Uttar Pradesh (19,436 MU), Tamil Nadu (15,772 MU), Andhra Pradesh (10,727 MU), Madhya Pradesh (10,078 MU) and Punjab (6,928 MU).

However, the trends indicate that the deterioration in the energy scenario will only be minimal in states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, as the energy deficit will only go up slowly from 9,793 MU to 10,078 MU in Madhya Pradesh and from 21,278 MU to 23,509 units in Maharashtra.

The energy scenario will be much bleaker in Uttar Pradesh, where the state elections are scheduled for next year, as the energy shortfall will surge from 11,446 MU in 2010-11 to 19,436 MU in 2011-12. Another badly hit state will be Punjab, India’s grain basket, where the energy shortfall will more than double from 2,685 MU to 6,928 MU during the period. But the worst case scenario is in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. While energy deficit in Tamil Nadu is projected to increase three-fold from 5,213 MU in 2010-11 to 15,772 MU in 2011-12, the deficit of Andhra Pradesh is expected to go up four-fold from 2,520 MU to 10,727 MU during the period.

In relative terms the states with the highest energy shortfalls projected in 2011-12 are Jammu & Kashmir (25.3%), Uttar Pradesh (23.6%), Uttarakhand (20.2%), Madhya Pradesh (19.4%) and Maharashtra (18.9%).