With the four-month south-west monsoon season approaching to a close by the end of this month, the weathermen are upbeat that their forecast would prove correct. The official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department had predicted that the average cumulative monsoon rainfall over the country would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm subjected to a model error of +/-4%. The rainfall data till September 26 show that the country has received 86.42 cm rain, which is just 1% below the LPA for the period.
The IMD had said that northwest India will have rains amounting to 96% of its LPA (61.2 cm), while so far the region has received rains aggregating to 108% of its LPA, exceeding the forecast. Till September 26, central India received rains amounting to 98% of its LPA, while IMD’s forecast was for 101% of LPA (99.4 cm) rain by the end of the month. South peninsular India recorded rains amounting to 100% of its LPA for the period (till Sept 26), while IMD’s forecast stands at 98% of LPA (72.5 cm) by September 30. For northeast India, IMD had predicted rains amounting to 10% of its LPA (142.9 cm), while the region has received rains aggregating to 93% of its LPA by September 26. The forecast model error for all the four homogenous regions is +/-8%.
On the whole it may turn out to be a victory for IMD’s forecast, but the erratic rains in July in Gujarat, Maharashtra and most of the southern half of the country took a toll on standing crops and delayed sowing operations in the crucial agricultural month. The monsoon revived only towards the end of July and good rains continued leading to floods in Bihar and Orissa. Due to erratic rains in July, sowing of coarse cereals like jowar, bajra, maize and oilseeds suffered a setback. Area under arhar (red gram), urad (black gram) and moong (green gram) shrunk. Area under cotton declined as farmers switched over to paddy cultivation owing to a bad experience of the mealy bug on Bt cotton. Sowing of sugarcane and jute also suffered a setback.
According to the rainfall data, the average cumulative rainfall has been good all over the country, with the exception of western Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. At the micro level 78% of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rains, while 21% received deficient rains and 1% received scanty rains. As major parts of the country received good rains in the south-west monsoon season and the soil has enough moisture content, it may boost crops in the upcoming rabi (winter) season.