Agriculture in Uttar Pradesh has always been at the mercy of the weather gods, and this year is not an exception either. Fluctuation in temperatures may be beneficial for one crop but bad for another. A slight alteration in the pattern of rainfall can lead to farmers growing one crop at the expense of another, often leading to severe imbalance in the crop production pattern.
The state, which has as many as nine agro-climatic zones, is highly prone to such climatic changes. While the eastern part of the state is prone to floods, the Bundelkhand and Vindhya region are drought-prone areas and central UP suffers from both extremes, thus adversely affecting agricultural production in the kharif season.
With the cumulative rainfall in both eastern and western parts of Uttar Pradesh for the 2009 season till the week ending July 29 recording as more than 45% deficient, food security has become a major concern, especially because UP contributes on an average 21% to the national production of foodgrain, according to the 2001 census. With an average annual foodgrain production of about 42.7 million tonne and per capita production of 234 kg, UP ranks third highest among major states, and is considered to be a foodgrain surplus state.
Truant rainfall has forced the state government to declare 58 districts out of the 71 as drought-hit, leading to serious concerns regarding meeting crop production targets. Both, in the western part of the state where sugarcane is widely grown and in the eastern districts where paddy is the mainstay, severe drought conditions have hampered the productivity output. While 58 districts have been declared drought-hit, the situation in the remaining 13 is not very rosy, with many of them having only 60-70% rainfall.
According to sources, sugar output in the state, which accounts for more than half of the country?s sugarcane area and about a quarter of the country?s sugar output, is likely to fall by at least 11% in the new season that begins in October because of the poor rains.
?Lack of rainfall in June and July, which are the main months for sugarcane when the crop growth rate is 1.5 centimetres per day, has damaged the prospects of the output. While irrigation only saves the crop, it is the rainwater which helps it grow to a considerable height,” said an official of the cane department. Another important factor for the output of sugarcane being hit is the fact that the sugarcane area in the state has contracted after a weak monsoon.
In fact, freak weather conditions, coupled with politics over the pricing of sugarcane, have forced several farmers to switch to other crops. ?Rice and wheat fetch better remunerative prices as compared to the price of cane, which is always embroiled in politics,? says a farmer who has recently switched over to sowing wheat in place of cane in Baghpat district.
The production of paddy, which is the mainstay of the state?s economy, has gone awry, alongwith pulses and oilseeds, the other major kharif crops in the state. The state government has been forced to scale down the lofty target of bettering last year?s production figures of 131 lakh tonne by 150 tonne to a more practical 50 lakh tonne over an area of 5.2 million hectares instead of the 6 lakh hectare.
?To achieve that figure too, farmers will have to be provided certified seeds of the medium and short duration paddy seeds as a lot of time has been lost already,? said an official of the agricultural department.
Since paddy crop in the state is mostly rain-fed, it has already wilted away in large tracts due to the intense heat wave. In eastern and central UP, too, farmers are still primarily dependent on the traditional rain-fed paddy crops. The practice of having a second crop is still not common,? said an official, explaining why the loss cannot be made up.
Free-of-cost, short duration certified seeds for pulses and other kharif crops, like bajra, soya, jowar and oilseeds, need to be provided to achieve whatever little production that is possible in the remaining sowing period, opine experts.
With agriculture being the mainstay of the state?s economy, with 62.12% of the poulation engaged in agriculture, farmers will be the most affected, especially so as most of the farmers own very small sizes of land holdings. ?Around 90% of the farmers in the state are small and marginal farmers, some 73.8% of the total operational holdings in the state are marginal (below 1 hectare) and another 15.5% holdings are small (between 1 and 2 hectares).
?This, coupled with the sensitiveness of the climatic conditions and its effect on the lives of its people and effect on the country?s economy, makes it imperative that the government make policies that are farmer-friendly. It is the farmer who gets squeezed by both the unpredictable climate and the moneylenders. With weather getting bad, the chances of paying back loans become all the more difficult, leading to suicides,? feel agriculturalists.
In this changed scenario, the agriculture department is expecting a sharp drop of almost 20-30% in the kharif crop yield.
