The Hindu calendar month Sravana ultimately had its way. This month ended on August 16 with a flood situation in many reservoirs in the country.
According to the August 13 report of the Central Water Commission, there were 15 moderate and 23 low flood situations in different parts of the country, including Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. The Natural Disaster Management Division (NDMD) under the Union home ministry has noted the damages due to heavy rains and floods in different parts of the country. According to the NDMD report of August 13, the total damage to crops, livestock and property is estimated at Rs 73912.235 lakh.
The month, Sravana, which usually extends from mid-July to mid-August is known to be associated with heavy rains. The south-west monsoon hits the mainland at the Kerala coast around June 1 – in the middle of the Hindu month Jyastha. The subsequent months-Asadha and Sravana- usually give good rains. However, in this year, there was an aberration in the July rainfall, with Gujarat, Maharashtra and the southern part of the country remaining dry in the first half of the month. This affected the sowing of coarse cereals, pulses and some oilseeds like groundnut. The monsoon system revived over the southern peninsula only towards the end of July.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the countrywide average cumulative rainfall since June 1 has been fairly good with 32 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions receiving normal to excess rains. Only Marathwada, Kerala and parts of northeastern India, with the exception of Arunachal Pradesh, received deficient rains. At a micro-level, 77% of the meteorological districts received normal to excess rain.
According to IMD, the countrywide rainfall was good in the week ended August 13, with only Himachal Pradesh, western UP, Tamil Nadu, and Lakshadweep receiving deficient rains. Based on numerical weather products, IMD has predicted fairly widespread rainfall over the Gangetic plains and northeastern states in the next two days and subdued rainfall over Peninsular India.
The US-based Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, northeastern states, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa till August 21. It has also predicted good rainfall along the west coast. Good rainfall would continue till the end of August in northeastern India and parts of eastern India.
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) has also indicated good rains, as the spoilsport, El Nino (warming of Pacific waters above normal) would not emerge. It has also predicted favourable conditions in equatorial Indian Ocean.