On the road to the fourth world

The Indian Express reported recently that the Indian media enjoyed greater freedom than the US media. It might well be true. Indeed, in many respects, Indians enjoy far greater freedom than most other nations. There is perhaps too much freedom for Indians, in general.

One of the indicators of development is the behaviour of road users. In developing countries, it is usually ?free for all? and ?might is right.? In the developed world, driving is relatively hassle-free. Pedestrians would not have to cross roads with a prayer on their lips. Indeed, vehicles would stop for them. Based on this measure, some of the East Asian nations should still be considered developing nations.

In recent months, there has been a lot of euphoria about India. The stock market is booming and so is Indian real estate. Jobs for skilled Indians are plentiful and salaries are on the rise. India has been the toast of international investors. Foreign direct investment into India is picking up and Indian companies are confidently acquiring units abroad. Many international companies have announced that India would figure prominently in their global growth plans. Credit rating agencies have upgraded their assessment of India?s rating and/or outlook. It would appear that India has arrived.

Alas, this writer notices a fairly disquieting development. Every visit to major Indian cities reveals alarming det-erioration in road discipline and basic norms of behaviour on the road. Drivers skip red lights with impunity and, worse, those who obey the red light are shouted at and ridiculed. This is in contrast to international experience, where discipline on the road improves proportionately with economic prosperity.

In India, roads are being mended and improved and there is greater choice in vehicles for users. Yet, road behaviour is deteriorating. This scant regard for the rule of law percolates down and permeates other layers of the society. In one sense, the contempt that naxalites have for the Indian state is no different from the contempt shown by the ordinary Indian for the rules of the state that have been drawn up for his benefit and safety.

Indeed, one could even safely make a predict-ion, based on this behaviour pattern alone, that the country would never make the transition to the first world. Further, this behaviour is at odds with both the country?s spiritual heritage and with its aspiration to be an economic power. It is a sign of the ?get rich quick? mentality that the recent run-up in stock prices and real estate prices has engendered. We simply have to be ahead of others at any cost.

The IPO scam, where allocations were illegally garnered, is yet another manifestation of the short-term instincts that have polluted our thinking and attitude to life, particularly among the urban rich. Whether they are educated or not is irrelevant here.

Indeed, the Indian citizen had revealed both his insecurity and his impatience in a survey conducted by India Today, the English periodical. The youth of India, the survey revealed, preferred the job security of the Indian government, reservations in educational institutions and jobs and only an incremental approach to economic reforms. In other words, they were not prepared to earn their prosperity, but were keen to have the state shower it upon them. At the same time, our behaviour in every-day situations suggests we would not behave as responsible members of a society that allows every member to pursue her legitimate dreams. Might and privilege matter more in modern India than merit. Alter-natively, it is about rights without responsibilities in the world?s most boisterous and noisy democracy.

Does the Indian state have either the moral right or the administrative capability to enforce the rule of law? Recent revelations of ministerial high-handedness with reputed industrial houses and the overall conduct of the present ?minority? government have robbed the state of any right to expect its citizens to respect the rule of law. Such a situation has opened the field for people of all hues to break whatever laws they can: terrorists mock at the Indian state, naxalites, communists and pseudo-secularists seek to undermine it from within and ordinary citizens disobey, among other things, even the rules of the road. This is not a pleasant recollection as one contemplates the future of this nation over the long term, even as the current level of the stock market index lulls many into thinking the country has arrived.

As the results of elections to five important states are announced later this month, some of the inherent and glaring contradictions in the current ruling coalition at the Centre would begin to emerge. Its foundations could be undermined, leading to political uncertainty. Internationally, Iranian nuclear plans threaten to snowball into a wider conflagration and global investors are ignoring this, rising interest rates, tightening liquidity and rising oil price, etc. Complacency and hubris overwhelm realistic and rational assessment of risks and return.

However, history is replete with in-stances of such a mindless and seemingly endless frenzy of rising asset prices giving way to a more sombre assessment of risks and an eventual correction in stratospheric valuations. When that occurs in international financial and commodities markets in due course, Indian assets would not remain an exception.

No nation has prospered by not working for it and no driver has reached his destination by disregarding the rules of the road. In both cases, by the time realisation dawns, it is usually too late. We would do well to pause, reflect and revise. Otherwise, when the tide goes out, practically the whole country would be seen to have been swimming naked.

?The writer is the founder-director of Libran Asset Management (Pte) Ltd, Singapore. These are his personal views