It is dangerous for the art investor to go fishing for fads and fashions. A cool head is required to invest properly. And the reason is not just economic. Investment in art saves good works for the future as well.

I have dwelt at great length on the market for Indian contemporary art in New York for the reason that it is the centre of world finance. And pegging up prices in that art market will help sustain prices at home as well, though the Indian market is so large that it can establish anything on its own.

SH Raza?s oil on canvas (1975): An excellent buy

For my broader survey, I have chosen to look at the prices not only of Tyeb Mehta and Husain, but also those of other leading artists like Ganesh Pyne, SH Raza, VS Gaitonde and NS Bendre as well. This would give us a fair cross-section of our contemporary art today to judge trends by. Of course, the sudden rise in the price of Indian art with the sale of a large work of Tyeb Mehta for nearly Rs 1.6 crore had everyone talking about it for a couple of weeks.

But now the dust ought to settle. The rise is spectacular, from Rs 36.6 per sq cm on average in 2000, to Rs 51.23 in 2001 and Rs 209.44 in 2002. But it remains to be seen whether this trend will sustain itself and I believe it will. But where the plateau effect sets in will be important.

Bendre, whose lot 312 sold at Rs 14.36 lakh in 2000 has reached a high of Rs 17.33 lakh in 2002 for lot 293. But, Bendre?s graph is still unsteady. In 2000, his average price per sq cm was Rs 85.95. It fell sharply in 2001 (largely because of the works put up for sale) to Rs 44.83. And again, because good works were accessed, it rose sharply to Rs 113.42 in 2002. It is evident that NS Bendre, despite the efforts of a number of Mumbai art dealers, some in Delhi, and Christie?s with a new pro-Mumbai bias this year, has not really caught on beyond a doubt. However, his pointillist landscapes seem to promise to survive these ups and downs.

Among the Mumbai abstractionists, VS Gaitonde still rules the roost, showing a steady rise from a high of Rs 14.36 lakh in 2000, to Rs 25.38 lakh in 2001 and Rs 32.86 lakh in 2002. His sales reflect a rise in price from Rs 111.39 per sq cm in 2000 on average, to Rs 158.88 in 2001 and to Rs 233.68 in 2002. Like Husain for figurative art, Gaitonde is a good standard to go by in Indian abstract art.

Another artist who follows closely in the footsteps of Gaitonde is Paris-based SH Raza, the prices of whose works have risen on average from Rs 66.44 per sq cm in 2000 to Rs 117.53 per sq cm in 2001 to Rs 230.95 per sq cm in 2002. The highest price for a single work of his was Rs 14.36 lakh in 2000; Rs 28.20 lakh in 2001 and Rs 32.87 lakh in 2002. His prices, unlike those of Bendre, reflect a healthy trend of going towards a peak. Investing in good works of Raza at the moment is a worthwhile prospect.

The two who tower above the Indian contemporary art market, Ganesh Pyne and MF Husain, are well into the plateau-an excellent choice for long-term investors. The highest price paid for Pyne?s work in 2000 was Rs 30.38 lakh, in 2001 it was Rs 13.54 lakh, and in 2002, it remained stable at Rs 13.54 lakh.

His prices per sq cm, however, that had fallen sharply from Rs 576.75 per sq cm in 2000 to Rs 288.13 per sq cm in 2001, have risen once more to Rs 389.55 per sq cm in 2002. He is still today the highest priced Indian living artist when we compare his prices per sq cm with Raza at Rs 230 per sq cm and Husain at Rs 104.68 per sq cm or even Tyeb Mehta at Rs 209.44 per sq cm.

Two factors favour Pyne. First, smaller works, if well executed, generally fetch higher prices, as do works of those artists who produce less. This allows investors in Pyne?s works to stock them more easily as they are not bulky. That is why good works of Pyne seldom leave their owners? collection. They are saved up for the children to inherit. Indeed, the works of Ganesh Pyne are one of the best investments in the market. But one is not likely to get one in the bargain basement or for a song.

What do the New York sales teach us in general? The works they have accessed are important. Names no longer sell as they used to. Artists who do not overproduce, generally, get higher prices for their work. Bengal art still rules the roost despite every effort to push Mumbai, but good art is available at all the major centres: Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad. And most of all, when we look at the prices expected for Picasso prints and ceramics at the Christie?s sale of October 9, Indian contemporary art is still grossly under-priced. So it is good to invest in. This is especially so as its global sales are looking up.