The price of maize is expected to gain when the kharif arrivals hit the market in November-December due to continuing demand from poultry industry while groundnut is likely to loose its charm due to fall in prices of domestic oilseeds on the back of increased edible oil imports. The price of another premium oilseed, gingelly, will also stay flat owing to lower export demand.
According to a research report released by Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) on maize, groundnut and gingelly, which are known as ?Adi Pattam? crops sown in the month of July, Karnataka has already taken up kharif maize cultivation and the acreage under maize in the state has increased 20% compared to previous year. More farmers have inclined towards maize due to higher minimum support price (MSP) fixed by the Union government and timely monsoon in Karnataka. But Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu (TN) have not yet received adequate rainfall for kharif sowing. In Tamil Nadu, area under maize cultivation increased to 3.49 lakh hectare in 2007-08 from 1.97 lakh hectare in 2006-07 and the production climbed to 13.37 lakh tonne from 7.59 lakh tonne. Shorter duration, lower cost of cultivation, minimum water requirement with low marketing risk compared to other crops, were the reasons for the shift towards maize cultivation. A similar trend could be expected during this season too.
Better carryover stocks with poultry firms and traders, reduced export demand due to lower global prices and expected arrivals from Karnataka in August would be the parameters that will not allow the price of maize to cross Rs 1,000 per quintal till harvest of new crop in TN.
In such scenario, TNAU report confirmed that the price of maize will be around Rs 820-880 per quintal for ?Adi pattam? sown crop, which will hit the market from October ? December 2009.
The kharif groundnut sowing is in progress in the major producing state of Gujarat. The southwest monsoon plays major role in groundnut cultivation and 70% of the output comes from rainfed fields in the country. Delayed monsoon threatens farmers to take to sowing. In addition, increase in imports of edible oil also dragged down the domestic oilseed prices. In 2007-08 oil year, import of oil accounted to 35.67 lakh tonne, but from November 2008 to June 2009 itself the import surged to 58.24 lakh tonne.
Gingelly is harvested during both summer and winter seasons. Being a rainfed region, sesame cultivation has gained momentum in Tamil Nadu. Indian gingelly has demand in Japan, Western Europe, the Middle East and the US. But this year, Ethopia has managed to bag more export orders spoiling India?s business by offering cheaper gingelly.
Indian traders, too, imported 4,000 tonne of gingelly seeds from Ethiopia during November 2008- January 2009 that affected the sesame market and the price dwindled to Rs 44 per kg of first grade red gingelly variety.
Even though the acreage under gingelly cultivation increased this year, the yield was not at the expected level. The TNAU report confirmed that the price for first grade red gingelly variety would be in the range of Rs 40- 44 per kg when it hits the market.