In the 2004 elections, Andhra Pradesh was one of the states where the outcome was deemed to be crucial. Not only were assembly and Lok Sabha elections being held simultaneously, but the Congress, out of power since 1994, had made a vital alliance with the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS). It was also an acid test for the TDP: will the tech-savvy government with a CEO return to power? The performance of the Congress in Lok Sabha elections in the state was also paramount to the UPA coming back to power at the Centre.

Five years later, all eyes are on Andhra Pradesh again. The emergence of the Praja Rajyam Party and its founder Chiranjeevi?s promise of ?PRP for Change?, has changed political equations in a state where the Congress was preparing to return for a second term, and the main opposition party, the Telugu Desam, is trying to regain lost ground after the severe trouncing in 2004. This election is all the more interesting because there are more film stars turned politicians in the fray than politicians.

The TDP was all but written-off and the contest was supposed to be between the Congress and PRP. On January 31, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu pulled off a coup by forming the ?Maha Kutami?’ (Grand Alliance) with the TRS, CPI and CPM. This has brought a third factor into the scene, making it a three-pronged contest.

The fact that the TRS joined the alliance in spite of Naidu refusing to entertain TRS chief K Chandrashekar Rao?s demand for a better seat-sharing ratio points to the desperate situation of the Telangana party.

The Left parties, though opposed to the bifurcation of the state, not only joined hands with the TDP which did a u-turn and is now supporting the Telangana cause, but also accepted the TRS which has been spearheading the Telangana movement since the last decade.

With no visible anti-incumbency mood, the Congress is going strong. The YSR government is credited with the launching of the maximum number of pro-poor schemes including Rajiv Arogya Sree health insurance, Indiramma low cost housing, subsidies and 25 paise loans for farmers, free power, and of course reintroducing NTR?s Rs 2 per kg rice scheme. Still, even within the Congress, many feel the party cannot be complacent. To counter the PRP and the TDP-led alliance, the Congress is bringing in fresh faces and dropping sitting MLAs above 60 and those who have not nurtured their constituencies.

On Wednesday, driven to the wall on the Telangana issue, Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy was forced to make a statement in the Assembly that the Congress was not against a separate Telangana state.

The question is, will the PRP and the TDP-led alliance dent the vote share of the Congress and fracture the verdict?

There are reasons why this could happen. One, the appearance of the PRP has consolidated caste bases. Chiranjeevi?s pro-poor rhetoric has found its mark among the OBCs, SCs and STs ? the traditional Congress vote base. He has constantly targeted the weaker sections in his road shows and public meetings. Besides, Chiranjeevi belongs to the Kapu community, roughly 26 per cent of the state?s population. In the 2004 elections, 46.90 per cent Kapus voted for the Congress while 35.7 per cent voted for the TDP. Among the OBCs, 52 per cent voted for the Congress while 37 per cent voted for the TDP. While 71 per cent SCs voted for Congress, 17 per cent voted for TDP. A vote swing towards the PRP, and if Chiranjeevi?s lakhs of delirious fans vote for him, may change the fortunes of the fledgling party.

The other reason is the grand alliance. The TDP won 47 seats in the 2004 polls though its tally has now been reduced to 42 with resignations and suspensions. The TRS won 26 seats in 2004, but in March 2008, 16 of its pro-Telangana MLAs resigned alleging that the Congress has reneged on its Telangana promise.

Ten TRS MLAs continued to support the Congress and did not resign. In the ensuing by-elections, the TRS was nearly wiped out in its Telengana bastion, managing to win back only 7 of 16 seats. This is why the TRS decided to join the TDP-led grand alliance. The May-2008 by-elections also gave encouraging results to the TDP which surprisingly won 5 seats?4 in Telangana. The CPI and CPM combined won 15 seats in 2004 ? CPI 6 and CPM 9.

The performance of the PRP, and the Grand Alliance, could upset the Congress applecart in 2009.