The IT hardware market has indicated positive signs of recovery in the recent quarters. However, analysts view the market situation as ?cautiously optimistic?. The initial two months of the fourth quarter (October-December) have seen positive developments, driven by upbeat consumer sentiments and optimistic enterprises. However, a lot more clarity will come with spending plans will only be finalised in the first quarter (January-March) of the next financial year. At the same time, shipments in the fourth quarter of 2008 were so weak that even a modest growth in the fourth quarter this year could portray that market is recovering faster than it really is.
?During the third quarter, usually there is a surge due to the festive season. We need to wait till the end of fourth quarter to gauge the level of recovery, though we expect it to be positive,? says Sumata Mukherjee, lead analyst-PC, IDC. ?At the same time, we have seen improvement in the enterprise section. However, this is not going to be similar to last year levels,? he adds. George Shiffler, research director at Gartner says, ?We are anticipating seasonally modest growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, but because shipments were so weak in the fourth quarter of 2008, growth will appear quite strong. This could lull vendors and market watchers into thinking the market is recovering faster than it really is.?
Diptarup Chakraborti, principal analyst, client computing markets, Asia-Pacific, Gartner also echoes similar sentiments of positive outlook for the quarter. ?The hardware spend is gaining and the outlook for the next six months looks positive. Starting first quarter, we expect the market to be stronger than earlier reported numbers,? adds Chakraborti. Gartner predicts the market value of global PC shipments to total $217 billion in 2009, a 10.7 % decline from 2008. However, it will reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6% increase over 2009. In the third quarter in terms of unit shipments year-on-year HP grew 9%, Acer 26% while Dell declined 6.8%.
Interestingly, firms are also not backing on the launch of Microsoft Windows 7 and it is not expected to be the sole driver of PC sales in the coming quarters. Steve Felice, president, small and medium business, Dell, said, ?We have seen a positive sentiment around Windows 7 but it is very difficult to gauge how much will this aspect actually contribute to the growth in the coming quarters.?
?Recent OS releases have not been a growth driver in the PC market, however, the timing of Windows 7?s is favorable for the industry due to expected economic improvements and an overdue hardware replacement cycle,? Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner said. ?We anticipate renewed interest in hardware upgrades from consumers and small business during the holiday season as a result Windows 7?s release. In the corporate market, Windows 7 adoption is not expected to ramp up until late 2010,? he adds.