In most Russian fairy tales the hero often finds himself at crossroads. Standing there he sees less than encouraging signs in all directions: ?If you go left, you lose your horse. If you go right, you lose your head. If you go straight, you find nothing.? That is the typical conundrum.
Indo-Russian relations are not the stuff of fairy tales, but once they weren?t too short of a pretty picture.
Till well into the 1980s, the relationship was greased by mutual need and sustained by substantial political, strategic and economic goodwill. India was another name for a time tested friend in the minds of Soviet citizens, and more importantly at a time when the Soviet Union didn?t have many friends in the world.
Later, after the trauma of division when Russia was facing an unprecedented economic crisis, it was India that extended extremely liberal terms in clearing off its Rupee debt. It may be worth recalling that Russia was then fighting economic disaster with its back to the wall. It didn?t have the money to pay its soldiers regularly, so the desertions from army were routine. And for an oil rich country it had to endure the strange spectacle of not being able to afford the aviation fuel bills for its airforce fleet. The western world wasn?t unhappy at Russia?s economic misery. There were some who were waiting for it to fail so that as a sinking state its dependence on the western world could be complete.
It is a little known fact that, at such a time, India was generous to a financial fault in settling the terms of its rupee debt. The package made no economic sense from the Indian viewpoint, but it made sound political sense. It was eminent proof that ours was a helping hand to a friend in need.
In turn the Soviet Union stood by us many times in the UN Security Council, the history of the Security Council voting provides proof of this. And its arms and equipment sales became the mainstay of our defence at a time when others were in a denial mode to us.
Even today, some of the cutting edge technology continues to be provided by Russia. The Sukhoi 30 MKI are rated among the finest in the world. The Russian help in the making of Arihant submarine has also been significant. Moreover in teeth of considerable opposition from some quarters, Russia decided to help us construct the nuclear power stations at Kalpakkam. Despite these considerable strengths in our ties, there is hardly any news today about the Indo-Russian relations. Common man is left wondering if there is any substance left in the relationship.
The public perception of our current ties is shaped largely by the stories of Russian greed, and arm twisting by its agencies, in revising upwards every so often the price of the aircraft carrier Gorshokov. There is no doubt that this issue has hurt, it has fractured the trust that was the hallmark of first the Indo-Soviet and then, to a lesser degree, of the Indo-Russian relations.
The Russian leadership must take notice of the damage that the Gorshokov deal has done to the trust that was once the hallmark of our relations. It needs to step in and pull the settlement of Gorshokov?s final price out of the purview of the salesmen. It has to take a larger political view of the issue.
Both sides will do well to realise that it will be a mistake to let the Gorshokov incident sour a relationship that continues to have a lot of substance. Nor should it be forgotten that sections of economies in both the countries owe their prosperity to markets they reciprocally offer.
Equally importantly, the people continue to react spontaneously and with warmth to this relationship. It makes sound geo-strategic sense, too, at a time when both countries face difficult environment around them.
Russia has prickly and demanding neighbours. It is constantly on the edge in its dealings with Georgia, Ukraine and Poland. The West continues to test it all the time and the relations with China are laced with mutual wariness. Some, like the US vice-president Joe Biden are ready to dismiss it as a power in decline on account of various factors, including the declining demographics. But in all this, the dooms-predictors gloss over the fact of Russian grit and resilience in face of adversity, as both Napoleon and Hitler would have testified.
What then is the way forward for Indo-Russian relations? Is there any point in trying to resuscitate this if our affections are diverted elsewhere? These are weighty and fundamental issues and in some ways the scenario is far too complex to be explained quickly. But it will help to flag some points.
India and Russia are two of the very few economies in the world that are expected to do well in the coming years. They will also be the rare markets that will be in an expansion mode for some time to come. Both the countries will have the advantage of being technology leaders in some special areas. And for a long time to come, Russia will be home to the largest reserves in the world of many natural resources.
But all this can be set rolling if there is a political will and desire to invest in the relationship. Once that effort is made and a clear signal given, trade and investment is sure to follow.
For the moment, however, the reality refers to a recent summit in Tajikistan. There the Presidents of Pakistan, Russia, Afghanistan and Tajikistan were assembled a few days back for their annual Summit.
It is strange that three of our time-tested friends like Russia, Afghanistan and Tajikistan should have chosen to hold such a Summit with Pakistan rather than India. Is it a comment on the distance that has grown between us, or was it a measure of confidence in the new friendship that they seem to be forging?
Sadly, we in India were largely unaware of the meeting, or its implications for us? The media hardly made any mention of the fact that such a Summit was taking place in an area where Pakistan has for long been seeking its strategic depth.
The writer is a former ambassador