More than four years have elapsed since the Goldman Sachs study? Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050 published in the firm?s global economics series. In the study, the firm?s Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman picked Brazil, Russia, India and China from out of all developed, developing and emerging economies.

Wilson and Purushothaman?s analysis had led them to say that, together, the four would draw alongside the Group of Six (G-6) developed economies, and overtake their combined GDP in less than 40 years. That proposition contains assumptions and extrapolations about Bric/G-6 GDP growth, productivity and exchange rates until 2050?by when, only the US and Japan from the current lot, are expected to feature within the G-6 (or ?top?-6).

But 40 years is a long interval and the collective GDP of Bric economies is expected to exceed the present G-6?s in US dollar terms, well before that. Goldman Sachs says that it would occur in less than 40 years. The firm also reminds us that the summed GDPs of Bric economies was just 15% of the G-6?s GDP in 2003, but that could exceed 50% by 2025.

As for the disposition of G-6 economies, in 2003, Goldman Sachs had expected China to overtake Germany by 2007-end, Japan by 2015, and the US by 2039. India?s economy too would be larger than all others? (except the US?s and China?s) in 30 years?time?while Russia?s would be bigger than Germany, France, Italy and the UK.

Yet, each BRIC country faces significant challenges ?up front? in keeping development on track. Thus, China needs to address its unfledged financial system, while Russia faces the movement to a more broad-based economy from one with a heavy tilt towards commodities. Key issues in India are high levels of debt. That deters farmers from taking further working capital loans. And, the abysmally low levels of primary and secondary education could also hamper long-term growth. The average number of years that children spend in school is the lowest here, compared to countries like China and Malaysia.

Also, China?s is the economy that shows the most encouraging signs across the broad range of conditions that are needed to support

Goldman Sachs projections. However, Brazil and India have more to do, relative to China and Russia: they must create infrastructure and ratchet up education levels.

Finally, Goldman Sachs? is developing a deeper understanding of Indian institutions, according to its (January 22, 2007) paper, ?India?s Rising Growth Potential? by Tushar Poddar and Eva Yi. They suggest that India?s influence on the world economy is destined to be bigger, and more immediate, than had been implied in the earlier research on Bric economies.