After hitting the bottom during the months of January and February this year, private rail container operators are seeing some signs of recovery in May, as the import situation has shown some improvement. May 2009 container traffic data show a moderate increase of 3.8% over April.

However, on a y-o-y basis, there is a decline of 10.5%. According to industry experts, the moderate growth in container traffic is due to the improvement in imports. However, exports are yet to pick up. Trade is expected to revive only post the second quarter of FY2010.

The JNPT port, which handles around 61% of the country?s container volumes, posted a 4.4% rise in May. Similarly, the Chennai port, which handles around 16% of the country?s container volumes, witnessed a flat growth in the month of May.

RC Dubey, president, container train operators association, said, ?We have seen an improvement in May in container traffic as inbound traffic has improved slightly. Compared to January-February, when it reached its bottom, we have witnessed around 10% improvement in imports. Moreover, India?s domestic inland movement has also improved. We expect this situation to stay for the next 2-3 months.??

According to a top official from one of the leading container operators, the growth that is being witnessed now will go on at least for the next two months, as the inbound scenario looks good. Imports are taking place as people are stocking up goods as they are available at a lower price.

?This is expected to continue for at least the next two months. Hence, a lot depends on the exports,? commented the official on condition of anonymity.

Though, like the Baltic Dry Index, India?s container traffic is looking up in May, industry insiders are not yet too hopeful about the future, until and unless demand for export really picks up. It is expected that the improvement will continue, and the situation will not get back to what it was during January-February this year. However, experts believe that the growth will be extremely slow, as exports are still in a downturn. The trend is expected to continue in the near term as well and result in higher mismatch in exim trades. According to Ficci, sectors like engineering goods, gems and jewellery, chemicals and the like, which drive container traffic, are expected to post negative to zero growth in FY2010.