The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast and predicted that the cumulative rainfall in the four-month monsoon season, beginning June would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm.
The IMD?s forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-4%, which means that the rainfall can be in the range of 96% to 104% of the LPA.
Along with the even spread of the South-West monsoon rains predicted by IMD, the global forecast agencies have dispelled the fears of major flood situations, with exceptions at few places, by predicting the weakening of La Nina conditions.
Though the rainfall forecast is 100% of the LPA, the IMD has termed it as ?near normal? rainfall because there is no categorisation for normal rainfall in the IMD?s parameters.
In its initial forecast made on April 16, 2008, the IMD had said that that the countrywide rainfall in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the LPA rainfall for the period which is 89 cm subject to a model error of +/-5%. In its revised forecast released on Monday, the IMD said that the countrywide rainfall in July would be 98% of the LPA of 29.3 cm, subject to a model error of +/-9%.
It also said that the average cumulative rainfall over north-west India would be 96% of the LPA of 61.2 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. The rainfall over north-east India would be 101% of the LPA of 142.9 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. For central India the IMD has predicted rainfall amounting to 101% of the LPA of 99.4 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%.
Rainfall over the southern peninsula would be 98% of the LPA of 72.5 cm.
The US-based International Research Institute for Climate and Society has, however identified some areas of excess rainfall in the country.
According to IRI in August there would be heavy rainfall over central India and in September and October there would be heavy rains over eastern Gujarat and Rajasthan.