India?s official position on climate change?that the country is too ?poor? to ?afford? binding cuts on carbon emissions?hasn?t changed a whit in the first national action plan. The PM?s commitment that per capita emission won?t exceed rich countries? isn?t really a commitment. This is short-sighted for two reasons. First, policy on climate change is medium-term oriented and in the medium-term the argument that India is too poor will come across as a lot of smoke. India?s carbon consuming middle class and industry will both grow at a rapid clip. Compared to the US, India emits three times as much carbon per unit of GDP. So, continuous robust economic growth in India will have big emission impact. The Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. By that time, India?s carbon footprint will not be so small as to easily fob off negotiators on climate change policy. Therefore, no binding cuts may become an unsustainable position. It also doesn?t do the country any good to say it is too poor when millions of Indians join the ranks of the middle class.
The second reason is related to Indian industry?s capacity to innovate on green technology. It is limited in the medium term?all R&D data seems to project this. The way out of this is to incentivise technology transfer. But an India that is part of the climate change protocol will be in a far better position to bargain on cleantech than an India that insists on being treated differently in the face of facts. Indeed, if India adopts emission cuts on its own and demands that it get special access to cleantech intellectual property, it will have a very good bargaining chip. What India loses out by staying out of the emission cut regime is the best chance to re-engineer its industry and technology for the future. Globally, private investors are in the green game. Carbon Disclosure Project is a group of global institutional investors who manage more than $40 trillion in assets. Last year was the first time BSE?s top 100 companies filed a green plan. Domestically, binding emission cuts will add teeth to environment policy. World Bank data shows more than half of India?s big industry ignores pollution norms. The action plan wants to put caps on sectoral energy consumption. Such policies have a sporting chance to work if there?s national emission constraint.