India’s edible oil import is likely to shoot up 73 per cent by 2020 and may rise further if the current growth of production is not maintained.
According to a report by industry body Assocham, the deficit between demand and supply in edible oils, to be bridged through imports, will surge to 8.1 million tonnes from the current 4.71 million tonnes.
However, the report warns that the situation may get worse if growth in domestic vegetable oil production is not maintained.
“Even maintaining the growth rate in the production of vegetable oils won’t be an easy task especially when there is increasing competition among different crops for the cultivable land, and irrigation facilities are not improving as desired,” it said.
Edible oil production in the country is growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.26 per cent, it said, adding that the output in 2006-07 touched 11.42 million tonnes, compared with 4.96 million tonnes in 1986-87.
On the other hand, edible oil consumption in the country has risen at a CAGR of 4.25 per cent to 11.45 million tonnes in 2006-07 from merely 4.95 million tonnes in 1986-87, the study pointed out.
Since the rise in supply is increasingly falling short of demand, the country’s dependence on imports is only expected to shoot up.
“As edible oil consumption is expected to grow with increasing population and per capita consumption, the country is likely to remain heavily dependent on imports as production growth is not sufficient to bridge this gap,” it said.
Adding to the problem of productivity, the scope for expansion in areas under oilseeds, too, remains limited.