Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan complete polls in fourth phase today

Haryana: 10 seats

Seeking to match the Congress?s impressive tally of nine out of the 10 Haryana seats last time, chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda toured the state extensively in the run-up to elections. But there were two Lok Sabha constituencies he visited just once ? his son Deepender Hooda?s seat Rohtak, which looks set to return him comfortably; and Bhiwani-Mahendergarh, from where forest minister Kiran Choudhry?s daughter and Bansi Lal?s granddaughter Shruti Choudhry secured a ticket against his wishes.

These two examples sum up the election scenario in Haryana. The Congress is not really worried about an anti-incumbency sentiment. Its biggest worry remains the public infighting.

The most famous instance was the spat between the chief minister and finance minister Birender Singh. Singh stayed away from campaigning after Hooda ensured he didn?t get a Lok Sabha ticket despite the minister openly expressing his desire to contest. He was seen with Hooda only when Sonia Gandhi came for election rallies.

Yet the Congress is confident of its chances. Five years after it swept the Lok Sabha elections and took two-thirds of the Assembly seats a few months later, there isn?t either a visible anti-incumbency sentiment or a strong opposition.

Om Prakash Chautala?s INLD is yet to recover from the 2004 losses. The Haryana Janhit Congress (HJV), led by Kuldeep Bishnoi, has fielded candidates from all the constituencies but can expect to do well only from Hisar, where Bhajan Lal himself is the candidate. The BSP could be the deciding factor in two constituencies. Others hold little significance.

Rajasthan: 25 seats

After a drubbing in the 2004 parliamentary elections, when the BJP romped home with 21 of the 25 seats, the Congress hopes to make significant gains this time in Rajasthan.

It appears as if the BJP and Congress have switched places between 2004 and 2009. Then, the Raje-led BJP had assumed power in the Assembly elections in 2003 with a thumping majority, and in the 2004 general elections the BJP had enough steam left to further vanquish the already disorganised and faction-hit Congress. In 2008, the Congress, led by Ashok Gehlot, wrested power in Rajasthan. The party hopes to use the momentum to reclaim lost territory from the BJP, as the saffron party struggles with internal infighting.

This time, Gehlot chose Raje?s home constituency, Jhalawar, to kick off the party?s campaign, which only bolstered the confidence of the Congress workers. The contest for Rajasthan is being seen as a clash between Gehlot and Raje. The former has managed to travel extensively, individually campaigning for each candidate. In the case of Raje, campaigning has been mostly for her son Dushyant in Jhalawar. Both the parties have managed to give representation to almost all communities, including Jats, Rajputs, Brahmins, SCs and STs.

With the Gurjjar reservation stir still fresh in the minds of the Gurjjar and Meena communities, the 2010 reservation review has evolved into one of the most important issues this election.

The BSP after winning six seats in the Assembly polls in 2008, its highest ever tally, seemed to emerge as the state?s third front, till recently, when all six MLAs defected to the Congress.

New Delhi: 7 seats

In 1998, while the BJP lost to Sheila Dikshit in the Assembly polls, the party struck back by forming the government at the Centre. Both parties say a repeat performance is unlikely this time.

Even the cancellation of tickets for Congress veterans Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar in the light of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots is unlikely to affect the poll outcome, say sources. The chips are stacked against the BJP in Delhi. ?What has really worked against the party is not being able to recover after the crushing defeat in the Assembly polls? says a party insider.

Even in the BJP fortress of West Delhi, party candidate Jagdish Mukhi is in for a tough fight. Congress candidate Mahabal Mishra, the party?s only Poorvanchali candidate in Delhi is capable of staging an upset.

Delimitation has upset poll calculations. South Delhi, which after delimitation comprises of mainly rural areas and a large Gurjjar-Jat population, may see surprising results. The percieved sure shot wins for the Congress remain East Delhi?s Sandeep Dikshit, North West?s Krishna Tirath and New Delhi?s Ajay Maken.