India?s energy security plans could remain on paper if it does not take steps to clinch deals with the West Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, as well as in the neighbourhood.
Government officials pointed out that while India was almost dormant on this score, it could end up passing the opportunities to more aggressive countries, which are also looking for tying up resources in those regions. Senior officials who have been closely monitoring the country?s energy security, shared their view with FE, on the condition of anonymity and said, ?Despite years of negotiations there has been no ?tectonic shift? where India?s energy policy is concerned.?
India needs huge amount of gas to meet its ever growing energy demands. It produces about 90 million standard cubic metre of natural gas per day as against its daily demand of 120 million standard cubic metre that is likely to go further in the coming years. The projected demand of natural gas in India by 2020 stands at a staggering 400 million standard cubic metres a day. Though some of this demand will be met domestically, still a large gap would remain.
It was in 2006 that India was set to join the $3.3-billion project Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) gas pipeline project, even as the Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline was stuck not only over the pricing, but also due to security concerns of the pipeline. A top official said India, which is looking for alternative sources of gas, pointed out that ?India is lucky to be surrounded by so much gas in the neighbourhood. But, it has not been actively pursuing the proposed pipelines not only because of pricing but also for political reasons.? Though the TAPI was never being considered as an alternative to the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, the government was keen to pursue it as it would have easier to implement, since it was supported by ADB.
The TAP is expected to transport 100 mmscmd of gas, of which India?s share at best is likely to be 60 mmscmd. The Cabinet in 2006 had approved participation of India in the TAP natural gas pipeline project. With this participation in TAP became TAPI?Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
The Cabinet had authorised the ministry of petroleum and natural gas to submit a formal request to join the project to the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan, a process, which was facilitated by the ADB. Senior officials have said that, the pipeline from Turkmenistan would be more easier to implement than the Iran-Pakistan-India line as it already had the backing of the ADB. ?Not only the distance from Turkmenistan, but the current volatile situation both in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan is not feasible for the government to pursue this pipeline.?
However, unlike IPI, the project does not run the risk of being blacklisted for participation by US and European financers and companies. But, ?Apart from European Union, there are other countries too who are wooing Iran for its gas. It is just a matter of time before Iran will sell gas to these countries,? said officials.
The pipeline would offer a much-needed financial boost to war-ravaged Afghanistan in form of transit fee. ?Ofcourse there are security implications but once Afghans see huge economic benefits flow in the form of jobs and multi-million dollar transit fee, they will ensure the pipeline is safe,? an official said.
For a long time now it is known in the subcontinent that gas is an economic source of energy, and that pipeline is the best mode to carry this gas from the vast gas fields that have been discovered in the region and neighbouring territories in recent times.
But, still some countries are not only reluctant to export their surplus gas reserves but also hesitant to allow even the gas pipeline to pass through their territory. Bangladesh is a case in point. By linking the gas pipe line transit to many other issues, Bangladesh complicated the issue. India had been pushing for an early pact on the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India gas pipeline as there was almost no chance for it to get gas from Bangladesh.