It is regrettable as art becomes more expensive, gallery owners become more secretive about their pickings. Of course, income tax returns may have something to do with it.
Then there is the question of having pursued doubtful artists whose work does not sell; so that is covered up by saying, ?We sold out?, or ?We sold almost all?. Then there are the monopolists who keep their cards close to their chests and inspire a sudden rise in the price of certain artists at sales and auctions. This naturally makes analysis difficult.
That is why I have chosen to study the bulk sale figures of Indian art over five years of auctions at Osian to give us an idea of the general behaviour of the market from which the reader ought to be able to get an idea of what the price of a work bought within the last five years ought to be today.
A sale of August 2001 involving 140 lots, of which 71 sold, totalled Rs 1.12 crore the sales were 48% of the total number of works, the average for each lot working out to Rs 1.58 lakh approximately.
The next sale we look at is that of August 2002. The sale totalled Rs 82 lakh and 94 of the 150 lots sold, working out to a per lot average of Rs 87,630 approximately. In November 2003, the total takings were Rs 1.55 crore of 243 lots sold, with an average price working out to Rs 1. 45 crore per lot.
So, we can see that up to the end of 2003, the market in general remained steady but good individual works moved ahead undeterred. This is especially true for the Mumbai group artists like Tyeb Mehta, FN Souza, MF Husain, SH Raza and Akbar Padamsee.
In October 2004, with consortia coming into the market, we find the pickings were Rs 7.3 crore for 100 lots out of 125. The average works out to Rs 7. 3 lakh per lot approximately. This is an extremely sharp jump.
But when we look at the figures for December 2005, the taking were Rs 17.6 crore for 101 lots of a total of 119, working out to no less than Rs 17 lakh per lot. In March 2006, the total sales worked out to Rs 41.7 crore for mere 89 lots, working out to Rs 46.8 lakh per lot.
What do we conclude from this? First, that Indian contemporary art is coming into its own. It was badly under priced before, but now it is more or less achieving its value. This means that after the end of the year, one could expect to see prices even out.
This is nothing to fear as this is a general trend, but blue-chip art will continue to get ahead as it has done before. Good young artists also are likely to do better, especially as our contemporary art market still has plenty of outlets to project new talent.
Even average art should expect to see a 100% to 200% rise in price each year, depending on the quality of the work.
As regards the consortia and monopolists, while they may be playing fast and loose with the prices of individual artists they have began to hoard, in general, they appear to be playing by the rules. So the situation is secure enough for the buyer at the moment at least. The coming season is the time to buy as the plateau will not be reached by the end of next year.
But success always depends on whose work you choose to buy and what it is in terms of quality despite the general trend.