In India, a good monsoon has different meanings for different people. For the common man on the street good rains mean a welcome break from scorching heat, for people in cities it means relief from water and power shortage, for policymakers it translates into higher GDP, and for poor farmers good rains mean a bumper harvest, lower input costs and higher profits. If initial indications are anything to go by, the start to the monsoon this year has been promising. Moderately good levels of water in 81 major reservoirs are prompting farmers to sow kharif crops earlier than usual. Rains first reached the Andaman islands on time, followed by its entry into the mainland through Kerala a day ahead of schedule. But the real test will begin now. If past years? records are taken into account, it is not the quantum of rains but their distribution and spread over the June-September season that is crucial. Bursts of shower followed by long dry spells do more harm than good as it encourages farmers to plant their crop, only to see them wither. In an ideal situation, meteorologists say, rains should be in short regular spells, which gives adequate moisture to the soil, thus helping in proper growth of crops.
In cities too, sudden and heavy downpours have been a bane for civic authorities, as creaking infrastructure fails to cope. What should be done is to minimise the impact of both low and excess rains by taking adequate preventative steps. For growers, regular monitoring of the crop, planting only after rains gain strength and keeping a back-up plan ready are some of the plausible measures. Civic authorities, for their part, should be ready with all the men and material to meet any eventuality. A big responsibility also rests on the IMD, the country?s nodal agency for weather forecasting. Proper prior intimation for both excess or deficient rains could go a long way in easing the authorities? job.
Although 100% accuracy in weather forecasting is impossible, more so in case of monsoons that are dependent on numerous weather factors, the importance of timely information with reasonable level of accuracy cannot be discounted.
sanjeeb.mukherjee@expressindia.com