India ?s coffee production in the current crop year, which started in October might not cross the targeted 0.3 mt as heavy monsoon rains resulted in berry drop due to wet feet conditions in certain pockets.
The government-owned Coffee Board, in its recently released post monsoon estimate, cut 2009-10 coffee production forecast to 2,89,600 tonne, down by 5.45% or 16,700 tonne from the previous post-monsoon estimate of 3,06,300 tonne.
Some crop was also damaged due to untimely rains in October and November, said Coffee Board chairman GV Krishna Rau.
?The rains not only lead to falling of the standing coffee berries but also affected their quality by splitting and dropping the ripened fruits. It also hampered harvesting and processing of coffee, especially Arabica,? Rau said. According to the board?s estimates, Arabica coffee production will decline to 94,600 tonne this year, down 6,925 tonne from post-monsoon estimate of 1,01,525 tonne.
On the other hand, Robusta coffee output is expected to fall to 1,95,000 tonne, down 4.77% from earlier estimate of 2,04,775 tonne.
Maximum damage to coffee was reported from Karnataka, which accounts for more than 65% of the country?s coffee production. Output in all three coffee growing regions of the state?Chikamagalur, Kodagu and Hassan?will decline, board sources said. Karnataka?s coffee output is expected to be around 2,05,700 tonne, down from the post monsoon estimate of 2,21,475 tonne.
Board officials said the production loss is more in Kodagu, where the board cut its forecast to 1,11,200 tonne from 1,17,975 tonne earlier.
The production will decline to 70,150 tonne from 76,000 tonne in Chikamagalur and drop to 24,350 tonne from 27,500 tonne in Hassan belt. Output in Kerala, the country?s second-largest coffee producing state, which accounts for 20% of the total production, will be almost flat compared to the post-blossom estimate because of favourable monsoon in the state. The board?s forecast for Kerala was almost flat at 59,250 tonne compared to post-monsoon estimate of 59,550 tonne.
Coffee production in Tamil Nadu is estimated at 19,350 tonne, marginally down from post monsoon estimate of 19,500 tonne. The board has also cut its forecast for production in non-traditional states like Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and North Eastern region to 5,300 tonne from 5,725 tonne. With this downward revision in post monsoon estimate, India?s chances of overtaking Mexico as the world?s fifth-largest coffee producer have become remote.
Recently in the India, International Coffee Festival (IICF), International Coffee Organisation (ICO) executive director Nestor Osorio had predicted that India has a chance to over take Mexico in coffee production if it could produce more than 5 million bags as per Coffee Board?s post-blossom estimate.
But now with the board?s lowering its post blossom estimate to 4.81 million bags (60-kg bag), the chances are dim.
Currently, India is the sixth-largest coffee producer in the world after Mexico.