As the year ends, it will be interesting to do a bit of crystal ball gazing and try and pick a few key trends which could catch on in the year 2011. Prediction in the technology space is often difficult, more so in the ?mobility space? where disruptive new technologies lead to new age trends very quickly. For example, three years ago none of us could have predicted that dual SIM phones in India would capture 35% of the total handset market in 2010. However, there are a few firm trends/ new products and services which are beginning to shape up and could be big in 2011, and could spell delight for the geeks and comfort for the common users.
Tablet devices will be here to stay. A form factor made popular by Apple through its iPad has led to an array of devices being launched. The last quarter of 2010 has seen many vendors including Samsung and Dell launch their tablet devices in India. In 2011, the ?tablet? trend is expected to grow. One expects the prices for tablets to head south as Indian vendors join the party. The growing traction for tablets may very well dampen the demand for netbooks ( when the year 2010 started, people expected netbooks to be the product for the future, and now within 12 months, one finds that tablets could kill the netbook category. Such is the pace of change in the mobility space) High-end mobile phones will have more powerful processors, more memories and larger screens. It will not be uncommon to see mobile phones with 4-inches screen coming in vogue, with the young consumers viewing videos and movies on the move. Social networking through mobile phones will grow. Most phones will now have access to Facebook and Twitter. The young consumer will be more at ease updating his status on the social networking sites, on the move through his mobile phone, rather than through a computer.
The launch of 3G will open up a new world of high speed access and surfing. As the operators will roll out the 3G networks, in many a sense, the trend will shift from ?voice? to ?data?. As the experience in other countries shows, the advent of 3G will lead to content becoming the king for the mobile phone user. In parallel, one will see the launch of more high-end 3G phones thus driving growth for the replacement market. However, the full power of 3G may not be showcased till the 2nd half of 2011, till the time operators go in for a full fledged launch and government regulations clear the use of video calls on mobile phones through 3G.
Number portability on SIM cards will allow consumers to retain the same mobile number while changing the operator. The pilot for the service has already been launched in Haryana. 2011 should see the pan India roll-out of number portability. In the highly competitive Indian market, the launch of number portability could put further pressure on the airtime operators as they could see a higher customer churn. Ultimately, it will lead to better customer service being offered by the airtime operators for retention.
The geeks will continue to drive more traction for the Android platform on mobile phones. The gap between Android and Symbian OS will continue to narrow down, with Android catching up. This will mainly happen as more users get comfortable using and downloading applications on mobile phones. Platforms like Android with their huge suite of applications will surge ahead in 2011. The new year may very well see handset vendors positioning handsets around applications rather than around hardware.
The highly competitive Indian handset market will force vendors to launch differentiated products for new customer segments. As children start using mobile phones at an early age, the vendors could offer phones which are positioned specifically for children? phones with learning aids and/or phones with one touch instant calling on a SOS number. Similarly there could be phones designed specifically for the elder generation with features like larger keys, louder volumes and one touch instant calling to SOS numbers. Competition will lead to more innovation in the year ahead.
I have noticed a tech friendly colleague using a 5-inch Dell tablet as a phone (without a Bluetooth!), a netbook, a navigation device in the car and of course, as a tablet. As the new year beckons, it is apparent that 2011 will be an year in which line between various devices will continue to become even more blurred. Convergence will truly be the king in the new year!
The writer is CEO, Spice Hotspot
