The world?s most protracted troublespot in the Middle East would have rung in a very somber new year, as Israeli forces continue to bombard Gaza, and Hamas cadres continue to fire crude missiles into southern Israel. This latest escalation began after the end of a six-month ceasefire between the two sides on December 19. Hamas fired some 300 rockets and mortars into southern Israeli towns in the one week which followed, prompting an Israeli retaliation on December 27. While the Hamas rockets resulted in only minimal loss of life, Israel could still justifiably argue provocation as a cause for retaliation. Still, the Israeli response which has already killed more than 300 Palestinians including civilians, is being viewed as excessive in some quarters of the international community.
The latest fighting raises old questions, the most important being what Israel will achieve through this retaliation. There is a good chance that rather than weakening Hamas?s grip over the Gaza strip (which is the Israeli objective), the attacks will actually strengthen Hamas?s legitimacy. Israel?s economic blockade of Gaza which has caused much suffering also ended up strengthening Hamas domestically as they portrayed themselves as victims of unreasonable Israeli policy. And then there is the question of whether Hamas can be defeated militarily. Like Hizbollah, Hamas is essentially a guerilla group and will happily draw Israel into a messy urban war with no easy victory. Hizbollah, in fact, gave Israel a hard reality lesson in 2006.
The only way forward for all sides in the conflict is to ceasefire and get back to the table. A lame-duck administration in the US is unable and unwilling to put pressure on either side. And in Israel a general election is due and so no politician is likely to soften stance now. Hamas has nothing to lose and the moderate Fatah is irrelevant in Gaza. Things are grim.