The Swat valley deal between the government of Pakistan?s North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Taliban last week has raised concerns in New Delhi. India reiterated its denunciation of the Taliban after the deal enforced shariah in the Malakand region.
While some analysts in New Delhi have expressed worry over the proximity of Swat valley to Amritsar ?roughly 559 km?most in the establishment are not bothered by the physical distance, or lack of it. What they worry about, instead, are the implications of the deal, and the mindset that they believe has taken over the Pakistan establishment.
Coming soon after the Mumbai terror attacks, the Malakand accord appears in New Delhi to be the plain capitulation of the Pak Army before the Taliban. Some in the Pak establishment want it to be described, instead, as a ?tactical retreat?.
Either way, the view in New Delhi is that the Pak Army has accepted its inability to go after Baitullah Mehsud?s Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Waziristan without conceding ground in Malakand.
The deal has its foundation on the logic that Sufi Mohammed, founder of the Tanzim Nifaz Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM), with whom the agreement has been reached, will deliver on his word that violence will end. This is predicated on the influence he is said to have over his son-in-law Maulana Fazlullah, also known as Maulana Radio. Maulana Radio is the leader of militants who, under the TNSM, have been waging war in the Swat region.
Sufi Mohammed, arrested after he took 10,000 men to support the Taliban in their fight against NATO forces after 9/11, had shown similar intent last April when a six-point agreement was firmed up. For this, his six-year sentence was commuted to four years and he was released from prison but later his son-in-law did not honour the agreement prompting Sufi Mohammed to disown Fazlullah. Things have come full circle with Islamabad seemingly convinced that Fazlullah is on board this time.
These intricacies aside, New Delhi is of the view that these agreements are historically fragile and that after some regrouping, matters will worsen, particularly when Fazlullah is known to have recognised Mehsud as his leader.
The past peace agreements, initiated during former president Pervez Musharraf?s regime in 2004, have served only to grant the Taliban the time it needed to regroup from fighting the Pakistani military. During the ?peace periods? the Taliban would add new recruits, rest and re-arm its forces, and consolidate control over new territory. The peace agreements served to embolden and restore the morale of the Taliban while demoralising those who fought against it.
The current Malakand Accord has granted the Taliban control over a region that encompasses more than one-third of the North West Front Province. Sources in New Delhi feel that the receding of the Pak government from NWFP areas is ?grave?, since it shows the vulnerability of the Pak establishment.
New Delhi is worried at the possibility of the free run that terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are going to enjoy as an outcome of the truce with the Taliban. India maintains that these groups are ?interchangeable? and that there cannot be a distinction between the good Taliban and the bad Taliban.
The activities of Kashmir-centred anti-India outfits, like the LeT?which is now accused of having masterminded and executed the Mumbai terror attacks?are going to deepen the worries of the security establishment in New Delhi.