As the results have turned out in Tamil Nadu, it seems likely that Jayalalithaa and her AIADMK would have romped home even if she hadn?t promised to outdo rival DMK?s record in dishing out freebies. People wanted change and they have got it. The ruling party and the many pundits seem to have underestimated the angry public. No longer can anybody accuse the Tamil Nadu voter of being somebody waiting to be bought. The much discussed rural-urban divide also does not seem to exist. The 2G scam obviously played a role as it was symptomatic of large-scale corruption, which was not acceptable.
Ministers turned millionaires in five years. The voters turned up in unprecedented numbers to voice their protest.
Why did the welfare schemes and the wide social safety net not have an impact? There were much appreciated measures like the one kg rice for one rupee, the free insurance scheme for the economically disadvantaged, the 108 ambulance scheme, the free concrete houses for the poor, and the filling up of a record number of vacancies in government jobs?including teachers, transport workers and public service commission postings, to name just a few. Says a social activist, who works with self-help groups (SHG) near Madurai, ?Earlier, SHG women were allowed to bid for contracts for stone quarrying. They could make a decent amount, which took care of their needs. In recent years, elements with enormous political clout have prevented them from putting in their bids. These women feel insulted. They do not want charity but to have the pride of standing on their own feet.? This is true of areas like sand mining, construction and so on. DMK sources have bulldozed their way to grab opportunities, leaving the ordinary citizen behind. Land grabbing appears common. It is quite apparent that people were seething and waiting to fix the ruling party.
The breakdown of law and order was again something people were complaining about, and the government paid no heed to widespread murmurings. When three employees of the newspaper run by Kalanithi Maran died in a fire caused by MK Alagiri?s followers, there was widespread anger. This caused a much publicised feud in patriarch Karunanidhi?s family. The crime was never properly punished and it appeared as though the culprits had been given immunity. Although the family members made up later, the perception remained in the public mind that this family controlled the entire state. Family rule was certainly not acceptable to the electorate. There has been widespread disenchantment on many fronts.
The Karunanidhi family also succeeded in antagonising the entire film industry. The grievance was that production, distribution, exhibition and sale of rights were all controlled by the family members (son, grandson and nephews). In the last few years, many producers were heard complaining about the lack of availability of theatres for their releases. Many small releases could not see the light of day because the theatres were controlled by the family.
No one can accuse the DMK government of not being investor-friendly. However, in recent months there have been increasing complaints that the government only cares for big business. ?This government works for only MNCs and members of CII,? grumbles a small scale industrialist. What has upset the MSME sector is the shortage of power. The IT and auto sectors are seen as favoured children. ?The uninterrupted power supply to SEZs and MNCs is unfair. They can afford to generate their power from diesel gensets and their margins will not be greatly affected, unlike us.? The state has not added any capacity in power in the past ten years. Improving power generation has to be the priority of the new government.
In Tamil Nadu, the alliance arithmetic is supposed to work. But, whenever there is a wave, these calculations crumble. It is well-known that the Congress is not taken seriously in the state. It is faction-ridden and some fight or another erupts everyday. Yet the DMK allowed itself to be bullied by the Congress because of 2G compulsions. It came as a shock that the Congress was able to bully the nervous DMK to give it 63 seats. The Congress turned in one of its worst performances in the state, securing only five seats. It is not a relevant party in the state any more. The DMK?s other partners, the PMK and the VCK, have also been decimated. Vijayakanth?s DMDK has emerged the second largest party, with DMK finishing a poor third.
Will the Congress-DMK alliance last? The DMK is a much weakened party at the Centre. Will it be able to exert pressure on the Centre to scuttle Jayalalithaa?s favourite programmes as it did between 2001-2006? Can the Congress help it emerge out of the 2G mess unscathed? Will alliances and partnerships change in the state? The next few weeks may turn out to be quite interesting, with new permutations and combinations emerging.