The results of the West Bengal civic elections weren?t unexpected. If at all, there were question marks about the degree of victory, especially in prestigious areas like Kolkata and Bidhan Nagar (Salt Lake). That assumed additional significance because there wasn?t a tie-up between the TMC and the Congress for civic elections. At an average and aggregate level, with variations in specific geographical areas, TMC?s vote share has historically been of the order of 35%, with 45% for the Left and 10% for the Congress. On the face of it, a tie-up seems critical to rout the Left in assembly elections, though the first-past-the-post system complicates simple correlations between vote shares and electoral victory. Congress in West Bengal is non-existent and the bit that exists, lacks credibility. Civic poll results should have lessons not only for the Left, but for the Congress, too, and hopefully assembly elections will revert to a tie-up. Admittedly, civic polls are only about urban areas and cannot automatically be extrapolated to all of West Bengal. Rural Bengal has traditionally been Left Front?s base, though dents have been made because of land-related issues and alienation among STs and Muslims. TMC?s vote share in civic polls is marginally below that in 2009 Lok Sabha elections. But that?s neither here nor there. Desire for change cuts across both urban and rural West Bengal.
Therefore, regardless of what happens to a tie-up (and this has implications for the UPA alliance at the Centre), assembly results for 2011 (unless they are preponed) are a foregone conclusion, with perhaps two-thirds majority for TMC. But this desire for change also represents heightened expectations of citizens, desperate after three decades of Left rule. Thus far, TMC has occupied a destructive and obstructive opposition space, with no clear signals about what it represents as a party of government. There hasn?t been any vision or document about what its economic agenda is. In public posturing terms, on economic matters, there is little to distinguish TMC from the Left. As a perverse signal, the first Nano rolled out from Gujarat on the day when civic poll results were announced in Bengal. The future CM has assiduously cultivated an anti-industry and populist stance (even at the Centre) and altering state government policies isn?t going to be easy. Consequently, since efficient land usage is common for both agriculture and industry, increasing productivity for either is difficult. There is a lot of slack in services. But is TMC clear about opening up education, say? There is also enough slack in improving public expenditure and governance.
For instance, the 13th Finance Commission award has given West Bengal plenty of fiscal space. And one of the disastrous aftermaths of three decades of Left rule has been a complete collapse of governance and administration, other than what is undertaken by the party. This is easier to rehabilitate than industry, agriculture or services.
However, there are two problems. First, TMC?s successive victories have been based on co-opting ex-Left cadres, who now expect to reap rent-seeking spoils of distorting institutions after expected triumph in assembly elections. Second, three decades of Left rule and a decade of TMC politics represent deliberate undermining of democratic processes and taking to the streets. Even if TMC were to change its spots on becoming a party of government, there is no reason to presume Left opposition is going to make the task easy. Beyond all euphoria, one should remember there will remain a core support for Left in West Bengal. Central and eastern India, understandably characterised by Maoist-type movements, represent the worst of deprivation, lack of trickle-down and abdication by the government in the provision of public goods, including law and order. There is now evidence of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and even Orissa changing for the better.
West Bengal and Jharkhand (Northeast is different) remain the last bastions of the fight against poverty and deprivation. To make that dream possible, TMC now needs to draw up a vision document for what it wants to do with West Bengal, as a responsible party of government as opposed to an irresponsible party of Opposition. There are two prerequisites to doing that and drafting a reform document. First, there needs to be greater inner party democracy and TMC needs to transcend dictatorial tendencies, so reminiscent of similar other regional parties. Second, and related to the first point, there needs to be tapping of professional expertise from outside. The latter exists and in the present turmoil of West Bengal politics, an amorphous coalition of Kolkata-based intellectuals in support of change has emerged. If this goodwill and support is not tapped, change in 2011 will only be political and there will be no developmental cum economic change. Chaos and anarchy will lead to a churning, with genuine change only in 2016 or beyond. That would be a tragedy and West Bengal?s citizens deserve better. Unfortunately most people, especially Bengalis residing in Bengal, regard this as more plausible than any immediate improvement in 2011.
The author is a noted economist