By Yogendra Kumar
Nepal is a small country with a population of little over 30 million, GDP of $150 billion, and a total land area of over 147,000 sq km. Its geographical location is extremely important strategically. Critically, too, both countries share a common hydrological system supported by the Great Himalayan Range. The societal links have been braced together by adherence to Hinduism by majority populations in both countries.
However, this geo-strategic picture is not complete without bringing in their different political trajectories in recent history which complicate the task of any diplomat or strategic thinker in grasping its dynamics. The leaders and policymakers in both countries have their own imperatives which require to be squared constantly. Co-authored by a distinguished longest-serving Indian ambassador to Nepal and a policy professional with expertise on the country, this book fuses practical insights of a professional diplomat observing and shaping the high politics of this relationship and a well-researched, scholastic treatment of the warp and the weft of policy-making. With an abundant dose of empathy in their telling, the authors bring alive both the heartaches and headaches of leaders on both sides, especially when they were looking at the other in the midst of their respective national political transitions.
The authors state their objective right at the start with the words “… if there is one country with which India needs to make a fresh beginning, it is Nepal”. The book is divided into three sections. Section I, titled ‘Diplomatic Gleanings: A First-Person Account’, where Rajan offers his personal—and gripping—insights about key personalities, the violent turbulence and political instability of recent decades, changing geopolitical backdrop, especially India-China relations and a historical perspective. Section II, titled ‘Transitions of the Himalayan Kind’, written jointly, provides an analytical treatment of this relationship from its pre-1947 history to the aborted, protracted political transition and a firm conclusion that Nepal is better served through South Asian regional integration. Section III, ‘Repurposing India-Nepal Relations’, focuses on the nitty-gritty of diverse components of economic cooperation in a milieu of Nepal’s fractious politics with a strong hope that taking these relations to a higher plane suitable for an aspiring, rapidly modernising Nepalese population by the tractive force of India’s surging economy and its growing international role is achievable. There is a certain pathos in their telling given that several Nepalese political leaders, even though living in a different country, fought along with Indian freedom fighters against the British in India and went to jail with them. Not only were this generation of leaders highly respected in India, but even the current leaders have studied in India and have been influenced deeply by their educational experience. Yet, their official relationships with their Indian counterparts have been mired in distrust. The authors pay attention to the compulsions of their political survival in a party system characterised by smaller, constantly splitting (mostly personality clashes), parties with shrinking political base wherein the larger national interests for a poor, socio-economically backward country are not high in priority. They also point out the misreading of unfolding political situation on the part of Indian leaders and policy-makers has resulted in deepening distrust and anti-India rhetoric. One example in the book is the issue of abolition of monarchy where our leaders weighed in in favour. Its disruptive effect, through the disappearance of the only enduring anchor for shaping political consensus, resulted in violent turmoil and hastily drafted and short-lived constitutions; its ramifications were deep Indian anxiety about the possibility of a trans-border ‘Red Corridor’, penetration by adversarial intelligence agencies to foster cross-border terrorism and criminal links, and high temptation of unstable political leaders to play the ‘China card’ and bring up long dormant bilateral issues in this emergent setting.
The authors point out the lack of a cohesive approach from the Indian side in handling the various inflection points in Nepal’s transition since the end of its monarchy. Despite close connections between political and bureaucratic executives, including intelligence, as well as other influential personal relationships and vibrant contacts at the societal level, the different vectors of influence did not seem to function in a cohesive manner. Notwithstanding all these linkages, India could not bring to bear its weight into creating a more robust political party system that is essential for any smooth power transfer, as its own example demonstrates. Some instances even suggest that different Indian agencies were not even fully abreast of the fast-paced developments there, such as the adoption of the current constitution.
The authors’ discussion on several stalled megaprojects does make one wonder if a prior assessment is done about a project’s impact in the creation of a core political support base in the situation where a fractured, shifting alliance driven group of small parties are more geared at nurturing their respective narrow political constituencies. One approach, advocated by the authors, is a major focus on community-level projects. This approach could be extended to cross-border communities for, illustratively, small-scale river basin-based projects relating to climate change-driven localised impact, and to strengthen law and order management.
A more accelerated implementation of broad spectrum connectivity projects in recent years seems to be yielding results, although it is still early to say if the trust factor has transformatively improved, as noted by the authors in their concluding observations. At the height of the India-China crisis in 2020, KP Sharma Oli, who has been sworn in as prime minister a few days back, took an anti-India stance over the Kalapani issue.
The key takeaway from this important book is that an unstable Nepal has caused far more difficulties for India than even a not-so-friendly government. The threat of instability would, in fact, increase as global warming intensifies. As per a World Bank study, by 2050, nearly 1.5 billion people will experience severe water scarcity because of the impact on Himalayan glaciers. A closer cooperation at different levels, including scientific collaboration, is not only imperative but an opportunity. This may, in certain instances, include China as well, especially the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, run on strong international banking principles amongst other funding institutions.
The authors also point at the futility of slotting Nepalese leaders as pro- or anti-India, which misperceives the structure of current Nepalese politics. This approach feeds into the phenomenon of proactive Chinese diplomacy for influence in Nepal, or South Asia for that matter. Chinese interventions in directly manipulating Nepalese politics have not been successful and the authors too point at their limitations even whilst listing Chinese attempts to deepen the country’s influence. Our recent policy approaches, outlined by the authors, combined with the close linkages between the two countries and its peoples with better perception management serves us in good stead presently without compromising India’s ‘red lines’.
A significant observation of Rajan is that personality and temperament of key Indian interlocutors, especially ambassadors, plays a critical role in ensuring smooth institutional collaboration at all levels and in mollifying the anxieties of the key decision-makers on the Nepalese side where subjective factors can play a decisive role in particularly fluid or tense situations. This is not to say that a more cohesive political direction of the relationship is to be underestimated.
The book is an important contribution for understanding the complexities of managing India’s neighbours in our challenging times. Our think tanks, including academic experts, can produce more extensive analytical outputs, including policy studies, by generating and drawing upon a much larger database through application of modern methods of handling metadata, use of AI with a more predictive orientation, and better marshaling of institutional memory within and outside the government. The quality of feedback loop can be improved between the academic and policy assessments, especially real-time. Additionally, a more robust external media policy, which would require some government hand holding, for generating information products with participation from the target communities would result in better perception management and a wider public discourse about governance reforms.
Yogendra Kumar is a retired Indian Foreign Service official
Kathmandu Chronicle: Reclaiming
India-Nepal Relations
KV Rajan & Atul K Thakur
Penguin Random House
Pp 280, Rs 499